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STRATEGY: Two 90% down days are a sign of a bottom, not a top

Market absolutely horrific ---> but two 90% down days = capitulation
Equities have been in a tailspin since last week, spurred by the fears of the Omicron variant, and Tuesday the downside driver was Fed Chair Powell testimony, where he essentially capitulated on the notion of "transitory" inflation. I realize the future is uncertain, however, we believe the market reaction over the past two days has been disproportionate to the change in the actual outlook for markets. Here are the reasons we believe this:

- We are at month end, which means = window dressing
- Fed Chair Powell removed "transitory" from his commentary, simply to "get the monkey off his back"
- Omicron remains an uncertain risk, but every variant of COVID-19 has burned itself out = more virulent = faster the burnout
- Signs of capitulation, since we had two 90% down days in sequence

I have been puzzled by the fierce market reaction to two recent developments:

- panic over Omicron variant
- panic over Powell testimony
- reflecting both "faster taper"
- reflecting removal of "transitory" inflation

...

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