First Word

USA COVID-19 data will be messy for the next few weeks. Consensus not that constructive, even among typical Americans

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STRATEGY: Consensus not that constructive, even among typical Americans

COVID-19 will come to an end, but the path there is still unclear
Stocks started this shortened week on a weak note, with 3 of the major indices falling:

- Dow -0.76%
- S&P 500 -0.34%
- Nasdaq 100 +0.14%
- Russell 2000 -0.69%

Several Wall Street firms also downgraded their view on equities, citing risk factors such as slowing growth, inflation, Fed, etc, etc. Markets climb a wall of worry and this litany of risks is a good wall to work with. Our base case remains that stocks are set to rise throughout this month. We realize this is counter to seasonals and counter to 2020, but our rationale remains grounded on both a fundamental and a positioning view:

- Delta wave has peaked in the Southeast = template for rest of the USA = good
- Delta risk is keeping Fed dovish = good
- Investors are "fool me once..." = cautious = upside fuel

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...Consensus is just not that constructive, even consensus...

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