Summary

- COVID-19 case trends have deteriorated as the Delta variant rises proportionally to existing strains.

- Our central case is now that 10-15 states (those with lowest vaccination rates) will see another parabolic rise in cases in the next few weeks.

- Importantly, we do not see a high likelihood of lockdowns in response to these elevated levels of infection as adverse outcomes will likely fall significantly as a portion of cases. Surge in vaccinations likely.

- Our strategy and favorites remain the same. Epicenter is solid, Energy is our favorite sector and we think FAANG recovers in July and should do well in spite of the transitory headwinds we anticipate.
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So far, US COVID-19 cases are not following the parabolic surge seen in the UK. Case trends are rising linearly, but for those states with lower rates of vaccination, we expect a parabolic rise and this is now our central case.

However, we do not necessarily anticipate the usual corresponding adverse outcomes like hospitalizations and deaths. The positivity rate is now 2.2% and rising. It had fallen below 2% for many weeks but it is again curling upwards.

Importantly, we are not panickin...

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