Fri May 12, 2023

Stocks Continue Sideways Trade

Good evening: Believe it or not, the S&P 500 has officially been in a bear market -- down more than 20% from its high -- for more than 230 days....

Mon May 1, 2023

Arguably, this coming week most critical to our positive equity 2023 thesis. April ISM might be inflection = tactically favor Industrials $XLI this week. Plus, May FOMC might be last hike of cycle = thesis changing.

This is the most hated 7-month, 20% rally ever. This coming week is arguably the most critical to our positive equity thesis in 2023. The S&P 500 is up 9%...

Fri April 28, 2023

April Closes Higher, S&P 500 Up 9% In 2023

Good evening: Trading is over for April, with the SPX up about 1.46% for the month and the Nasdaq up 0.04%, in line with historical norms. Although markets did not...

Wed April 26, 2023

Equity markets bank into "bunker mode" in front of May FOMC but ATH in unemployment claims for over $200k earners = far softer wage growth ahead. April 2023 rebalance "Granny shots" net -3 (+7, -10).

Reminder, tune in this coming Thursday to an important webinar ___________________________________GRANNY SHOTS APRIL QUARTERLY REBALANCE TODAySEE BELOW FOR ADDS AND DELETES ___________________________________ Equity markets came under selling pressure on Tuesday,...

Thu February 9, 2023

Positioning Your Portfolio for the Silver Tsunami: Stock Ideas for an Aging America

News outlets worldwide reacted with concern on Jan. 18 when China acknowledged that its population had shrunk for the first time since 1961. But China is far from alone. The...

Mon October 31, 2022

Big data week ahead (JOLTS/FOMC) but bias positive as inflation discussion now more "two-sided" and stocks are not doing what consensus expects.

The reasons for stocks to continue falling are well known, among them:inflation too highFed going to keep pressure on marketsEurope entering a recessionChina zero COVID lockdown continuesEarnings are slowingStock charts...

Wed June 15, 2022

Markets far more de-risked into June FOMC. And +75bp brings rates closer to market expectations.

Since Friday's CPI (higher CPI) and U Mich Consumer Confidence survey (rise in consumer inflation expectations), consensus expectations for June is now a 75bp hike (vs 50bp prior). This is...

Mon June 13, 2022

Investors have become "single issue" voters (inflation)... and Tech + small-caps quietly gaining

The May CPI report (reported Friday), coupled with the U Mich Consumer Confidence survey, showed inflation remains sticky. And while there was some evidence, on the margin, of inflation pressures...

Fri June 10, 2022

Emerging leadership of Tech + China supports better 2H outlook... more signs forward inflation cooling

As many of our clients have remarked recently, every economic data point is really an inflation report. Repeating the obvious logic: trajectory of inflation impacts Fed rate path. Thus, every...

Wed June 8, 2022

"Soft landing" scenario strengthening. 1980s inflation broken when "goods" inflation peaked. Consumer discounts ahead. Target confirms. Manheim Index shows Luxury + Full-sized tanking.

Investors tell us they don't want to "fight the Fed" and as long as the Fed is tight, they will not touch equities. This is intuitively sound, but here are...

Mon June 6, 2022

Nasdaq outperformed post dot-com crash. Yup. And structural labor shortage strengthens demand for Technology in 2022

Signs of economic slowing are becoming more prevalent, allaying concerns that the economy is so "hot" that the Fed needs to further accelerate rate hikes. But the unknown is how...

Fri June 3, 2022

As probabilities of benign-er outcomes rise, FAANG/Nasdaq should rebound first

The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure and anxiety will surge regarding...