Soft surveys show probabilities rising of “growth scare” and other benign views…

The big event this week will be the May payrolls report. This is a case where bad news is good news. A strong jobs figure and anxiety will surge regarding an overly strong economy. As we discuss below, even if this proves to be a positive payrolls surprise, the underlying trends in the labor market seem to be softening sharply.

In conversation after conversation, investors describe the current macro environment as one of the most uncertain they have ever seen.

  • one client (HA) mentioned that this environment has forced him to become extremely tactical
  • his book becomes nearly flat at the close of every trading day
  • the macro outlook changes so dramatically given the extreme data dependence, and in turn, whipsawing market views on Fed policy

And it is not just investors, look at the comments from bank CEOs. Earlier this week, Jamie Dimon cited “economic hurricanes” and Goldman Sachs’ President Waldron warned of unprecedented shocks. This is not entirely surprising given the combination of war impacts, supply chain glitches, labor shortages, COVID-19 behaviors among other uncertainties.

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5 probable scenarios into YE: Markets and market consensus, in our view, ...

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