Big data week ahead (JOLTS/FOMC) but bias positive as inflation discussion now more "two-sided" and stocks are not doing what consensus expects.

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Stocks are not doing what consensus expects... consensus might be wrong, not price

The reasons for stocks to continue falling are well known, among them:

  • inflation too high
  • Fed going to keep pressure on markets
  • Europe entering a recession
  • China zero COVID lockdown continues
  • Earnings are slowing
  • Stock charts look like 2008 and many pundits say 2022 will be worse than 2008
  • Russia-Ukraine war will linger for years

Last week, there were plenty of reasons for stocks to sell off hard:

  • market stalwarts like $GOOG $AMZN $META disappointed and sold off double-digits
  • September PCE, Fed's preferred inflation measure, came in at 5.15%, up from 4.89% in August
  • China instituted further lockdowns

Yet, the S&P 500 managed to gain 4% for the week, bringing total gains to 12% in two weeks. The most interesting takeaway, in our view, is that consensus has become even more negative in the face of the market gains.

This tweet by @lloydblankfein, former CEO of $GS Goldman Sachs, summed it well. EVERYONE is negative. But some things could go right.

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And this tweet below is pretty typical of our conversations with institutional investors. Investo...
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