Arguably, this coming week most critical to our positive equity 2023 thesis. April ISM might be inflection = tactically favor Industrials $XLI this week. Plus, May FOMC might be last hike of cycle = thesis changing.


This is the most hated 7-month, 20% rally ever.

This coming week is arguably the most critical to our positive equity thesis in 2023. The S&P 500 is up 9% YTD and has been in a solid uptrend since the Oct 12, 2022 lows (S&P 500 3,491), posting gains 5 of the last 7 months and up two consecutive quarters. This means there is "good news" priced into equities. But we think this coming week could represent the "make or break" moment for our view and for those bearish/cautious on markets:

I concede there is a lot of uncertainty with a wide range of possible outcomes for the regional bank crisis, inflation and economic outcomes and even debt ceiling and Russia-Ukraine war. How these play out leads to a wide range of outcomes, and this is the reason investor expectations are so divergent. The two key events this week, in my opinion, are the ISM Manufacturing April (5/1 at 10am ET) and the May FOMC rate decision (5/3 at 2pm). The supporting cast is March JOLTS (job openings, 5/2 10am ET) which impacts the Fed's May rate decision. There are others (see below) but these are the two critical to markets. On ISM, the ISM manufacturing PMI has been in a freefall since March 2021 (peaking at 63.8) and fell below 50 in Oct 2022. We believe the ISM manu. might final...

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