Last week we discussed why we considered the energy sector one of our top three sector picks for 2021. We also added America's largest oil company, Exxon Mobil (XOM), to our 'Granny Shots' portfolio. We wanted to focus on a single-stock idea this week from the sector we recommended last week. We believe energy will significantly outperform consensus expectations. Thus, it should be no surprise that we think a massive oil major with the unique advantages and assets that Exxon has, in addition to a high dividend, should do very well if our thesis about the energy sector is correct. Look what happened when the VIX had its biggest three-day collapse ever; energy led the way. That should give you an idea of how it will perform when the market feels the all-clear is given to get ‘risk-on’ when the virus is vanquished.

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Exxon beat on earnings earlier this week and narrowly missed revenue. Nobody likes to see a $19 billion write-down but items like these often mark the bottom of a bad period. In Exxon's case, the impairment reflects a change in strategy that we believe significantly benefits shareholders, a new hyper-focus on low-cost, high margin capital expenditure projects that should generate a lot of free-cashflow within years, not a decade or more.

 We think that...

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