In a week that was packed full of macro headlines from Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, a host of Fed speakers talking down the “Dovish Pivot” interpretation of Chair Powell’s post FOMC press conference comments, a huge upside surprise in the employment report, and a huge 15% surge in the most shorted stocks, I took a small step back from the front lines of watching the macro headlines and was deeply immersed in my monthly deep dive into my single stock quantitative selection model that is call ERM.  During this review period, I look at over 2000 U.S. stocks with a keen focus on their individual earnings revisions indicator (ASM) and look at their charts as well to get a sense for how things are trading. 

I get a lot out of these reviews as I get deep into the weeds and into my process that has a big influence from earnings revisions.  So, I effectively put on my blinders and go from macro and micro, which allows me to have a different perspective than other Strategists who only fly at the 50,000-foot level.  My key takeaway from my week of looking at single stocks is that profit forecasts for Corporate America remain too high, they will need to be lowered, and this will likely take time, especially for areas that are sensitive to economic cyclical...

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