Upticks - August 2023

Upticks

Laggards

Meaningful Movement Worth Discussing Among Current UPTICKS Holdings

Boston Scientific (BSX -0.87% - $53.95)

Boston Scientific (BSX -0.87% - $53.95) was added to my UPTICKS list back on 2/22/23, but yet largely traded sideways for a few months following its December 2022 breakout before turning up more sharply in February.  Long-term trends look stellar, technically speaking, as the pattern from 2004 peaks resembled a large bullish Cup and Handle pattern.  BSX promptly jumped nearly 6% this past Monday 8/28, and volume rose to the highest levels since April 2023.

I expect further technical strength up to $58, which was my secondary resistance target mentioned in my technical research on BSX.  Overall, the long-term pattern remains quite positive, and I expect that this weeks’ gains could eventually lead BSX up much higher to $71-$72.

Mastercard (MA -1.32% - $412.53)

Mastercard (MA -1.32% - $412.53)  Following nearly a 2 year period of consolidation near all-time highs, MA -1.32%  has just broken out to fresh new all-time highs as of this week.  The act of climbing back up above $410 arguably should lead to an acceleration higher, with near-term technical targets at $450 and then $475.  Credit card processors like MA and V are some of the strongest areas within the Financials sector at present, and are far stronger than many Regional banks, or even Money-Center banks like C which recently dropped to multi-year lows.  Momentum is positively sloped and not overbought, and MA looks like a great risk/reward given the extent of the former consolidation now having been resolved in an upside breakout.  When comparing MA to V, Mastercard looks like the preferred Long, as V has not broken out yet and won’t have the same momentum in the weeks to come in all likelihood.  MA was added to UPTICKS back in May, but this breakout is important to discuss as this helps to resolve the former consolidation in a very bullish technical manner.  Overall, MA is an appealing technical long, and is one of the better risk/rewards within the Financials sector. 

Regeneron (REGN -0.20% - $826.34)

Regeneron (REGN -0.20% - $826.34)REGN has finally begun to show some excellent relative strength following its Spring 2023 consolidation, which managed to bottom out right near a key uptrend line channel from 2021.  Despite Healthcare having underperformed in recent months, REGN has been able to successfully lift off support near 680 to levels right near prior resistance targets at $840.  However, while $840 might hold temporarily, it’s likely that REGN should continue strengthening and technical resistance is being moved up to $875, and then $1000 as a secondary upside area of resistance.  It should be noted that REGN has outperformed all but two other members of the SPDR S&P Healthcare ETF XLV -0.06%  in the rolling one-month period, and this pick-up in relative strength makes this appealing to expect a coming breakout back to new all-time highs.  Pullbacks from $840, if they appear, should prove temporary and likely hold $780 before REGN rallies back to resistance near $875.  Bottom line, this remains an attractive technical stock within the lagging Healthcare sector, in my view.

Hershey (HSY 0.75% - $214.86) 

Hershey (HSY 0.75% - $214.86)  HSY has proven disappointing recently following its three-month correction, having sliced under initial support at $233 with momentum nearing weekly oversold levels.  This stock is part of the laggard Consumer Staples sector and unfortunately broke its three-year uptrend from 2020 lows.  However, at current levels, it looks unlikely to violate the prior lows from last November, technically speaking, and warrants giving this consideration for a bounce in the months to come.  At present, no evidence of counter-trend exhaustion signals are present on weekly nor monthly charts to support owning HSY based on DeMark indicators signaling a potential bottom.  However, structurally speaking this looks like an attractive risk/reward for a bounce based on momentum having pulled back to near oversold levels as HSY has tested its first 38.2% retracement level of the three-year rally.  Upside resistance is being lowered to $238 and then $245, either of which might prove important on rallies in the months ahead. 

CBOE Global Holdings (CBOE 0.13% -$149.75)

CBOE Global Holdings (CBOE 0.13% -$149.75)CBOE has shown some attractive signs of relative strength in recent months following its breakout of a lengthy four-year “reverse Head and Shoulders” pattern originating in January 2018.   I believe this stock is one of the more attractive of the Exchanges, which remain a very technically strong subsector of the Financials sector.  I added CBOE to my UPTICKS list back in March, on evidence of the breakout above 2021 highs, and this has successfully continued higher towards the first resistance target at $150.  New technical resistance targets for CBOE lie at $160 and then $180.  Volume expanded to the highest level in six months on August’s rally to new 2023 highs, and this continues to look quite appealing technically given the long-term consolidation breakout.   Dips likely find support near $145, and should allow for stabilization, followed by a push back to new highs.

Amgen (AMGN -0.88% -$256.34)

Amgen (AMGN -0.88% -$256.34) AMGN likely should continue its rally back to new highs in September, with initial resistance at $280 followed by additional targets near $296.  Overall, AMGN successfully reached and surpassed my initial resistance target at $253, following a near 20% rally since early June.  While the Biotechnology sector has had difficulty ending its consolidation which began last November 2022, AMGN started to show attractive signs of turning higher on above-average volume back in July.   This continued early in August 2023 and the minor breakout above $238.48 from mid-July happened on more than double its average volume.  While this stock has shown some minor consolidation in the last couple of weeks, it’s likely to prove short-lived before turning back higher to surpass $270 on its way to $280.  Momentum remains positively sloped and not too overbought given the consolidation since early August.  Dips likely find support near $248 which should make AMGN an attractive technical long candidate.

Bristol Myers (BMY -1.57% -$61.66)

Bristol Myers (BMY -1.57% -$61.66)  BMY has been a disappointment and given that this company still appears to be in the headwinds of the Administration’s Medicare Drug price negotiation plans,  I can’t be confident it will recover in the near future.  BMY has traded within a lengthy intermediate-term downtrend since peaking last December 2022.  It’s managed a small bounce in the month of August.  However, this rally has not helped the stock break its existing downtrend, and the combination of negative technical trends with a possible further fundamental overhang, it’s right to remove this stock until it can begin to make some technical price improvement, in my view.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC -9.37% - $142.69)

Marathon Petroleum (MPC -9.37% - $142.69) MPC has largely consolidated near all-time highs over the last few weeks following its massive run-up in mid-July.  This slowdown directly coincided with a period of Crude oil weakening.  However, little overall technical damage occurred in MPC, and this remains near striking distance of all-time highs.  MPC surpassed the first resistance at $138 without much trouble, but found strong overhead supply near the 2^nd area at $150.  While MPC is set to make a new monthly all-time high close potentially if Thursday 8/31’s close finishes over $134.83 (closed 8/30 at $143.17) monthly charts have been starting to reflect some negative momentum divergence.  At present, this divergence is unlikely to adversely affect MPC if Crude presses higher to the high $80’s.  I expect $160 should represent the next key area higher followed by $170.  If further gains fail to lift momentum meaningfully, it might be right to consider $170 more meaningful upside resistance. At present, this remains attractive technically, and further gains back to new all-time highs look likely in September.

New Additions

Range Resources (RRC -3.91% - $32.39) 

Range Resources (RRC -3.91% - $32.39)  RRC looks technically attractive following its consolidation from early August, and rallies back to test and exceed recent peaks look likely in the weeks to come.  Given that WTI Crude appears likely to embark on a further technical rally to the high $80’s initially, former August peaks near $34.54 arguably should pose little real resistance ahead of a rally back higher to test last June (2022) highs at $37.44.  This level represents initial resistance and weekly closes over that level would argue for a push higher to $48 which lies near the 50% retracement of RRC’s entire selloff from April 2014 into 2020.  Technically speaking, RRC has successfully exceeded short-term downtrends from August peaks in the last couple days that directly coincide with WTI Crude pushing higher this week.  Overall, RRC looks attractive and dips should likely not undercut $30.41 before pushing up to challenge August highs initially.

Cintas (CTAS -1.12%  $504.30)

Cintas (CTAS -1.12%  $504.30) CTAS’ breakout above its weekly 17-month Cup and Handle pattern makes this attractive on an intermediate-term basis, technically, and further gains look likely to resistance targets near $470, then $500 in the months to come.   While monthly momentum has shown some minor negative divergence, CTAS has maintained a bullish intermediate-term uptrend for the last decade, with just brief, short-lived interruptions in 2020 and 2022.  Prices have trended higher for five of the last six months to close out August on a positive note.  Yet, RSI does not show overbought conditions on a weekly nor monthly basis.  Overall, this remains a technically bullish stock in the Industrials sector, which broke out this year to the highest levels ever in relative terms vs. the Equal-weighted SPX.  Given that this lies just -2.45% from 52-week highs, this looks well positioned technically to trend higher and exceed July peaks in the weeks to come.  Support targets lie at $460 and should not be violated without postponing the advance.

Sector Summary