Macro Strategy
- Macro Minute Video
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: April CPI (next week) could increase market expectation of Fed cuts back to 2-2.5 (from 1.8). S&P 500 +1.7% week to date, a reminder "never short a dull market"
VIDEO: We discuss how next week's April CPI could increase market expectations for more Fed cuts. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:53). https://vimeo. com/944656756/b28aa1c4b0? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND 44 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 4/16. Full stock list here -> Click here...
- First Word
5 takeaways from earnings season and why muted reaction to beats is not "late cycle" signal.
VIDEO: The muted reaction to positive EPS, in our view, reflects the cautious macro views (uncertainty) given the stubborn inflation reports. 1Q24 EPS seems more early cycle. (duration: 6:06). https://vimeo. com/943859472/4df31c0dd0? share=copy This week is light on incoming macro, so earnings is likely primary focus. Overall, it's been a good...
- First Word
Earnings focus of coming week... "red hot" economy cooling is another support for "buy in May"
VIDEO: The biggest incremental support for stocks in May is the fact that the "red hot" economy is showing signs of cooling Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:07) https://vimeo. com/943076397/7f4fc4ceaf? share=copy So far in May (3 trading days), the S&P 500 is up +1.8% and Nasdaq 100 up...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Earnings focus of coming week… "red hot" economy cooling is another support for "buy in May"
VIDEO: The biggest incremental support for stocks in May is the fact that the "red hot" economy is showing signs of cooling Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:07) https://vimeo. com/943076397/7f4fc4ceaf? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND 44 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 4/16....
- First Word
A soft jobs report likely shifts "fear of May" to "buy in May"
VIDEO: We discuss how the growing apprehension of markets likely eases in next few weeks, perhaps starting with a possible "soft" April jobs report. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:43) https://vimeo. com/942150838/9c4190800a? share=copy Over the past few weeks, wariness and apprehension towards equities increased. In our many conversations...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: April Core CPI (Wed) comes to swing of housing and auto insurance. We expect +0.29% or better = good vs consensus of +0.30%
VIDEO: The Fed has maintained a dovish tilt because it is waiting for housing and auto insurance to cool. The first signs could be April = fuels further May gains. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 04:53). https://vimeo. com/945979092/322bfe7c92? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND 44 SMID GRANNY...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Equities down -4% in April and some wonder if this is the start of "payback" — still expecting May to be a positive month, with May FOMC (Wed, tomo) obviously important.
VIDEO: S&P 500 was down -4% in April, but we still expect May to be a positive month. There is a gauntlet of data ahead but May FOMC is key which is Wed Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 3:14) https://vimeo. com/941453793/4bfe5f63e5? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND...
- First Word
Stocks survive "fragility test" of April. Roadmap for May more constructive = recovery towards S&P 5,200
VIDEO: Stocks likely fare better in May, after surviving the "fragility test" in April. Also, lots of important macro data this week Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:38)._ _ https://vimeo. com/940509791/3e56f2d408? share=copy Two weeks ago, we noted that equities were about to face a "fragility test" given...
- Macro Minute Video
Video: Macro Minute: Stocks survive "fragility test" of April. Roadmap for May more constructive = recovery towards S&P 5,200
VIDEO: Stocks likely fare better in May, after surviving the "fragility test" in April. Also, lots of important macro data this week Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:38) https://vimeo. com/940509791/3e56f2d408? share=copy _____________________________ 36 GRANNY SHOT IDEAS AND 44 SMID GRANNY SHOT IDEAS: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 4/16....
- First Word
Two steps forward, one step back, yet equities still up 1% for the week. Friday's March PCE important.
VIDEO: This has been a challenging week for markets, but the overall message to us is companies are delivering strong earnings and investors are still wary that inflation might be accelerating. We get a better answer with April CPI in a few weeks. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...