First Word
Macro Strategy
First Word
Macro Strategy
- First Word
- First Word
Two steps forward, one step back, yet equities still up 1% for the week. Friday's March PCE important.
VIDEO: This has been a challenging week for markets, but the overall message to us is companies are delivering strong earnings and investors are still wary that inflation might be accelerating. We get a better answer with April CPI in a few weeks. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration:...
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Earnings are proving to be the positive catalyst needed for stocks to recover.
VIDEO: Mark Newton believes Tuesday's rally suggests the technical low is in place. That is a good thing and means CTAs and other investors are now likely to be buying equities again. 1Q24 Earnings is also a positive catalyst Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:10) https://vimeo. com/938438430/7feb2609d2? share=copy...
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5 signs the painful "de-leveraging" process might be nearing an end.
VIDEO: We discuss 5 reasons we believe the painful de-leveraging process might be nearing an end Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:29). https://vimeo. com/936493293/7d52a83875? share=copy As many are aware, we have viewed the bleeding of stocks in the past two weeks as part of a painful de-leveraging process. This...
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GRANNY SHOTS: Apr 2024 rebalance +7 adds. SMID Granny Shots +20 stocks. April Super and Sleeper Grannies. WEBINAR WED!!!
On Wednesday, 4/17 , we update our Granny Shots. If you have not yet registered, sign up with the webinar block below. ___________________________________GRANNY SHOTS APRIL QUARTERLY REBALANCE TODAYUPDATING 5 SUPER AND 5 SLEEPER GRANNIESUPDATING 5 SUPER AND 5 SLEEPER SMID GRANNIESSEE BELOW FOR ADDS AND DELETES TO DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE...
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The coming week is an important "fragility test" for markets as equities sit at 50dma. While de-risking is "knee jerk" response, this dip will likely be bought. In contrast to 2022 Ukraine-war eve, Fed is dovish.
VIDEO: The market faces an important fragility test this week, but to us, the key lies in the amount of required de-leveraging and also Fed stance. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:29). https://vimeo. com/934618745/2763fd8721? share=copy Over the weekend, Iran launched an attack on Israel, broadening the geopolitical risks in...
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Stocks survive "fragility test" of April. Roadmap for May more constructive = recovery towards S&P 5,200
VIDEO: Stocks likely fare better in May, after surviving the "fragility test" in April. Also, lots of important macro data this week Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:38)._ _ https://vimeo. com/940509791/3e56f2d408? share=copy Two weeks ago, we noted that equities were about to face a "fragility test" given...
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Last week's market "stress test" reveals investors lean bearish. Wed is first "clean" CPI (March) in 2024, and likely a positive catalyst for equities.
VIDEO: The first "clean" CPI report is released Wed (March CPI) and we expect this to show the prevailing trend -- that inflation is falling like a rock Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:45). https://vimeo. com/931776017/14ecf5caf3? share=copy Last week was "stress test" of sorts for equity markets. The combination...
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Equities soft into March jobs report (Friday). The 6 most recent instances of weak into jobs day saw strong gains 1-week and 1-month later (5 of 6 times). We expect similar.
VIDEO: Thursday afternoon sell-off of 2% is creating a buying opportunity into Friday's jobs report. There are 6 times stocks fell 1-day and 1-week into the jobs report. 5 of 6 times saw sizeable gains afterwards. Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 05:58). https://vimeo. com/930869490/67be69165a? share=copy Equities have struggled over...
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5 reasons we are buying this "inflation-fear" 2-day dip. Wed could be the turning date higher.
VIDEO: We discuss the 5 reasons we are buying this 2-day dip. Probabilities favor a turn upwards Wed Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 04:01). https://vimeo. com/930087070/3416b886fb? share=copy Ever since the March ISM manufacturing showed a somewhat "hot" prices paid and coupled with the creeping rise in oil, equities...
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Three empirical reasons small-caps set to outperform in 2024 by as much as 50%. R2K EPS growth +690bp faster but trades at a 41% P/E discount. Feb Core PCE (Fri) likely below consensus = good
Recently, I was a panelist at an investment conference (thank you, Stephanie Link, for inviting me) and a snarky panelist, a hedge fund manager, started to ridicule the idea of buying small-caps. To me, this was a confirmation signal that small-caps are so disdained - that a wrong-way-Charlie type can be...