The coming week is an important "fragility test" for markets as equities sit at 50dma. While de-risking is "knee jerk" response, this dip will likely be bought. In contrast to 2022 Ukraine-war eve, Fed is dovish.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

VIDEO: The market faces an important fragility test this week, but to us, the key lies in the amount of required de-leveraging and also Fed stance.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 5:29).

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

Over the weekend, Iran launched an attack on Israel, broadening the geopolitical risks in that region. This conflict emerges just as markets began to dial back the number of Fed cuts in 2024. In other words, we are facing a moment of dual fragility for equities. We don't think stocks will fail this test:

The questions of market fragility are coming just as the S&P 500 sits at a somewhat important technical juncture:- S&P 500 below 20-day mov avg (dma) of 5,199- 20 dma is a sign of short-term trend- S&P 500 sits at the 50 dma, of 5,111- an important technical support level As for the outcome of fragility, the two important factors are:- first, how broad is this Iran-Israel conflict?- second, what will Fed do? At this time, one cannot tell what can be expected to be Israel's response to the Iran attack. On X.com, there has been a huge increase in tweets about #WW3 and #stockmarketcrash, so investors are bracing for the worst. And reasonably, we expect investors to d...

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