Three empirical reasons small-caps set to outperform in 2024 by as much as 50%. R2K EPS growth +690bp faster but trades at a 41% P/E discount. Feb Core PCE (Fri) likely below consensus = good

VIDEO: There is a trifecta of factors supporting small-cap outperformance in 2024 and we detail the fundamental case for small-caps in this video (duration: 3:26).

Recently, I was a panelist at an investment conference (thank you, Stephanie Link, for inviting me) and a snarky panelist, a hedge fund manager, started to ridicule the idea of buying small-caps. To me, this was a confirmation signal that small-caps are so disdained – that a wrong-way-Charlie type can be so confident small-caps will not work. 

Our top idea for 2024 is small-caps, where we see at least 50% upside, and in today’s note I want to provide the 3 empirical (and fundamental) reasons for this:

• First, the Russell 2000 (IWM 0.69% ) companies are set to grow revenues and EPS faster than the S&P 500 (SPY 1.02% ), by a large margin in 2025 (vs 2024)
  – R2K vs S&P 500
  – median sales +6.9% vs +5.5%
  – true at every quintile of sales (see below)
  – median EPS growth +18.6% vs +11.8%
  – true at every quintile of EPS (see below).
• The faster sales and EPS growth may surprise many pundits who view smaller cos as growing slower. The drivers for this are sustainable:
  – Fed is easing = improved credit liquidity
  – ISM is bottoming = cyclical upturn
  – global inflation is ebbing = confidence improving
  – CEO caution is ending.
• Valuations are far more attractive in small-caps vs large-caps:
  – R2K vs S&P 500
  – median P/E (2025)   10.X vs 16.9X
  – true at every quintile of P/E (see below)
  – P/B discount (vs S&P 500) 44%
  – Only less than that in 1999, exact bottom.
• Shouldn’t Small-caps trade at a valuation premium, arguably, given the higher top-line (revs) and EPS growth? So, does a 41% P/E discount make sense? Or a 44% P/B discount. This is not “cheap for a reason.”‘ And when CEO confidence recovers, we also see the low valuations as setting the stage for synergistic M&A and consolidation.
• In 1999, this was also the same exact launching point for 12-years of outperformance. From 1999 to 2011, small-caps outperformed by 650bp annually and a cumulative 113% (11,300bp). Wow. 
• Finally, small-caps have been essentially abandoned by institutional investors. As the X (tweet) by Bob Elliot highlights, multi-cap investors have multi-decade low allocations to small-caps even as small-caps have begun to outperform. We see this performance chasing as a key factor for small-caps to sustain gains.
• As for economic data this week, Friday is when BEA releases Feb PCE Core deflator, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Our head of data science, “Tireless Ken,” expects +0.27%, below Street consensus of +0.29% and this should be supportive of equities next week. Inflation is cooling and continues to “fall like a rock.” This is not the stubborn inflation that skeptics argue exists. Equity markets are closed this coming Friday for the Easter holiday (Good Friday). 

Bottom line: Still gas in the tank, especially in small-caps.

We see 2024 as the year small-caps meaningfully outperform. The timing becomes more favorable once the Fed actually cuts interest rates – Fed futures see June as the first cut, the reason being the material benefit from liquidity.

As for specific ideas, our SMID Granny Shots of 45 stocks is our core recommended list. The list is below. We provide updated views on this list on the third Wednesday of each month via our Super Granny webinars.

• Communication Services: CARG 0.26% , SSTK 1.80%
• Consumer Discretionary: BLD 1.43% , CVNA 1.19% , DECK 2.05% , DFH 2.63% , HIBB, IBP 0.23% , OSW 1.70% , PBPB 1.52% , SHAK 3.56% , TAST, TPX 0.20% , WING 1.61% , WSM 3.12%
• Energy: REX -0.56%
• Financials: AX -0.52% , CRD/A, ENVA 0.16% , HCI 0.64% , OPFI 5.41% , PAGS -0.16% , TREE 3.05%
• Healthcare: NBIX 0.90% , SMLR 1.18%
• Industrials: AYI 2.67% , CDRE, GBX -0.24% , GMS 1.02% , HY -0.47% , MLI 1.68% , ROCK -0.18% , SCS -0.87%
• Information Technology: BELFB 2.23% , DBX 0.30% , MSTR 7.27% , NSIT 0.88% , NSSC 2.46% , PLUS 0.39% , QLYS -0.37% , SEMR 0.98% , SMCI 4.02%
• Materials: EXP 1.27% , KOP -0.44% , NEU 10.58%

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36 Granny Shot Ideas and 46 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 1/17. Full stock list here -> Click here

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PS: if you are enjoying our service and its evidence-based approach, please leave us a positive 5-star review on Google reviews —> Click here.

Key incoming data March:

• 3/01 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 3/01 10:00 am ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 3/05 9:45 am ET: Feb F S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Tame
• 3/05 10:00 am ET: Feb ISM Services Tame
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US House Financial Services Committee Dovish
• 3/06 10:00 am ET: Jan JOLTS Job Openings Tame
• 3/06 2:00 pm ET: Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 3/07 8:30 am ET: 4QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 3/07 9:00 am ET: Feb F Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 3/07 10:00 am ET: Powell Testimony before US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Dovish
• 3/08 8:30 am ET: Feb Jobs Report Mixed
• 3/12 8:30 am ET: Feb CPI Slightly Hot (as anticipated)
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb PPI Mixed
• 3/14 8:30 am ET: Feb Retail Sales Data Tame
• 3/15 8:30 am ET: Mar Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 3/15 10:00 am ET: Mar P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 3/18 8:30 am ET: Mar New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 3/18 10:00 am ET: Mar NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 3/19 9:00 am ET: Mar Mid-Month Manheim Used Vehicle Index Tame
• 3/20 2:00 pm ET: Mar FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 3/21 8:30 am ET: Mar Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 3/21 9:45 am ET: Mar P S&P Global PMI Tame
• 3/25 10:30 am ET: Mar Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 3/26 9:00 am ET: Mar S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 3/26 10:00 am ET: Mar Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 3/28 8:30 am ET: 4QT 2023 GDP
• 3/28 10:00 am ET: Mar F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
• 3/29 8:30 am ET: Feb PCE

Key incoming data February:

• 2/01 8:30am ET 4QP 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Mixed
• 2/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/01 10am ET January ISM Manufacturing Mixed
• 2/02 8:30am ET January Jobs Report Hot
• 2/02 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Final Tame 
• 2/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI January Final Tame 
• 2/05 10am ET January ISM Services Tame 
• 2/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Final Mixed
• 2/09 CPI Revisions Tame 
• 2/13 8:30am ET January CPI  Mixed
• 2/14 PPI Revisions Tame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Empire Manufacturing Survey  Tame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET February Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
• 2/15 8:30am ET January Retail Sales Data Tame 
• 2/15 10am EST February NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame 
• 2/16 8:30am ET January PPI Mixed
• 2/16 8:30am ET February New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
• 2/16 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation February Prelim Tame 
• 2/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index February Mid-Month Tame 
• 2/21 2pm ET January FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
• 2/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI February Prelim Tame 
• 2/26 10:30am ET February Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 2/27 9am ET February S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 2/27 10am ET February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 2/28 8:30am ET 4QS 2023 GDP Tame
• 2/29 8:30am ET January PCE Tame

Key incoming data January:

• 1/02 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI December Final Mixed
• 1/03 10am ET December ISM Manufacturing Tame 
• 1/03 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings November Tame 
• 1/03 2pm ET December FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame 
• 1/04 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI December Final Tame 
• 1/05 8:30am ET December Jobs Report Mixed
• 1/05 10am ET December ISM Services Tame 
• 1/08 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Final Tame 
• 1/11 8:30am ET December CPI Details Suggest Tame
• 1/12 8:30am ET December PPI Tame 
• 1/16 8:30am ET January Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET January New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/17 8:30am ET December Retail Sales Data Strong
• 1/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index January Mid-Month Tame 
• 1/17 10am EST January NAHB Housing Market Index Mixed
• 1/18 8:30am ET January Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame 
• 1/19 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation January Prelim Tame 
• 1/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI January Prelim Mixed
• 1/25 8:30am ET 4QA 2023 GDP Mixed
• 1/26 8:30am ET December PCE Tame 
• 1/29 9:30am ET Dallas Fed January Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame 
• 1/30 9am ET January S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame 
• 1/30 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings December Mixed
• 1/31 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Tame 

Key incoming data December

• 12/01 9:45am ET S&P Global Manufacturing PMI November Final Tame 
• 12/01 10am ET November ISM Manufacturing Strong 
• 12/05 9:45am ET S&P Global Services & Composite PMI November Final Strong 
• 12/05 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings October Tame 
• 12/05 10am ET November ISM Services Strong 
• 12/06 8:30am ET 3QF 2023 Nonfarm Productivity Strong 
• 12/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Final Tame 
• 12/08 8:30am ET November Jobs Report Tame
• 12/08 10am ET U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Prelim Tame 
• 12/12 8:30am ET November CPI Tame
• 12/13 8:30am ET November PPI Tame
• 12/13 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 12/14 8:30am ET November Retail Sales Data Tame
• 12/15 8:30am ET December Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
• 12/15 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI December Prelim Tame
• 12/18 8:30am ET December New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 12/18 10am ET December NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 12/19 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index December Mid-Month Tame
• 12/20 10am ET December Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 12/21 8:30am ET 3QT 2023 GDP Mixed
• 12/21 8:30am ET December Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
• 12/22 8:30am ET November PCE Tame
• 12/22 10am ET: U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation December Final Tame
• 12/26 9am ET December S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 12/26 10:30am ET Dallas Fed December Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 12/29 9:45am ET December Chicago PMI

Key incoming data November

• 11/01 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Final Tame
• 11/01 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings September Mixed
• 11/01 10am ET October ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 11/01 10am ET Treasury 4Q23 Quarterly Refunding Press Conference Tame
• 11/01 2pm ET FOMC Rate Decision Dovish
• 11/02 8:30am ET: 3Q23 Nonfarm Productivity Tame
• 11/03 8:30am ET October Jobs Report Tame
• 11/03 10am ET October ISM Services Mixed
• 11/07 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index October Final Tame
• 11/10 10am ET U. Mich. November prelim Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
• 11/14 8:30am ET October CPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET October PPI Tame
• 11/15 8:30am ET November Empire Manufacturing Survey  Resilient
• 11/15 8:30am ET October Retail Sales Data Resilient
• 11/16 8:30am ET November New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 11/16 8:30am ET November Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey  Tame
• 11/16 10am ET November NAHB Housing Market Index  Tame
• 11/17 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index November Mid-Month Tame
• 11/21 2pm ET Nov FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
• 11/22 10am ET: U. Mich. November final Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Tame
• 11/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI November Prelim Mixed
• 11/27 10:30am ET Dallas Fed November Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 11/28 9am ET November S&P CoreLogic CS home price  Tame
• 11/28 10am ET November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 11/29 8:30am ET 3QS 2023 GDP Strong
• 11/29 2pm ET Fed Releases Beige Book Tame
• 11/30 8:30am ET October PCE Tame

Key incoming data October

• 10/2 10am ET September ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  10/3 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings August Hot
•  10/4 10am ET September ISM Services Tame
•  10/6 8:30am ET September Jobs Report Mixed
•  10/6 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index September Final Tame
• 10/10 11am NY Fed Inflation Expectations Mixed
•  10/11 8:30am ET September PPI Mixed
•  10/11 2pm ET Sep FOMC Meeting Minutes Tame
•  10/12 8:30am ET September CPI Mixed
•  10/13 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
•  10/16 8:30am ET October Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  10/17 8:30am ET October New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
• 10/17 8:30am ET September Retail Sales Data Hot
•  10/17 9am ET Manheim October Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
•  10/17 10am ET October NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 10/18 8:30am ET September Housing Starts Tame
• 10/18 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  10/19 8:30am ET October Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Tame
• 10/19 10am ET Existing Home Sales Tame
• 10/19 12pm ET Fed (including Powell) at Economic Club of New York
•  10/24 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI October Prelim Tame
•  10/26 8:30am ET 3Q 2023 GDP Advance Strong
•  10/27 8:30am ET September PCE Tame
•  10/27 10am ET Oct F UMich Sentiment and Inflation expectation Tame
•  10/30 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 10/31 8:30am ET 3Q23 Employment Cost Index Mixed
•  10/31 9am ET August S&P CoreLogic CS home price Mixed
•  10/31 10am ET October Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame

Key incoming data September

•  9/1 8:30am ET August Jobs Report Tame
•  9/1 10am ET August ISM Manufacturing Tame
•  9/6 10am ET August ISM Services Mixed
•  9/6 2pm ET Fed releases Beige Book Tame
•  9/8 9am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index August Final Tame
•  9/8 2Q23 Fed Flow of Funds Report Tame
•   9/13 8:30am ET August CPI Mixed
•  9/14 8:30am ET August PPI Tame
•  9/15 8:30am ET September Empire Manufacturing Survey Tame
•  9/15 10am ET U. Mich. September prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
•  9/18 8:30am ET September New York Fed Business Activity Survey Tame
•  9/18 10am ET September NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
•  9/19 9am ET Manheim September Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Mixed
•  9/20 2pm ET September FOMC rates decision Market saw Hawkish
•  9/21 8:30am ET September Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Mixed
•  9/22 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI September Prelim
•  9/25 10:30am ET Dallas Fed September Manufacturing Activity Survey
•  9/26 9am ET July S&P CoreLogic CS home price
•  9/26 10am ET September Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Key incoming data August

• 8/1 10am ET July ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 8/1 10am ET JOLTS Job Openings Jun Tame
• 8/2 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 8/3 10am ET July ISM Services Tame
• 8/4 8:30am ET July Jobs report Tame
• 8/7 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index July Final Tame
• 8/10 8:30am ET July CPI Tame
• 8/11 8:30am ET July PPI Tame
• 8/11 10am ET U. Mich. July prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 8/11 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker July Tame
• 8/15 8:30am ET Aug Empire Manufacturing Survey Mixed 
• 8/15 10am ET Aug NAHB Housing Market Index Tame
• 8/16 8:30am ET Aug New York Fed Business Activity Survey Neutral
• 8/16 2pm ET FOMC Minutes Mixed
• 8/17 8:30am ET Aug Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey Positive
• 8/17 Manheim Aug Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 8/23 9:45am ET S&P Global PMI Aug Prelim Weak
• 8/25 10am ET Aug Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 8/28 10:30am ET Dallas Fed Aug Manufacturing Activity Survey Tame
• 8/29 9am ET June S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 8/29 10am ET Aug Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 8/29 10 am ET Jul JOLTS Tame
• 8/31 8:30am ET July PCE Tame

Key incoming data July

• 7/3 10am ET June ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 7/6 8:15am ADP National Employment Report Hot
• 7/6 10am ET June ISM Services Tame
• 7/6 10 am ET May JOLTS Tame
• 7/7 8:30am ET June Jobs report Mixed
• 7/10 11am ET Manheim Used Vehicle Index June Final Tame
• 7/12 8:30am ET June CPI Tame
• 7/13 8:30am ET June PPI Tame
• 7/13 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker June Tame
• 7/14 10am ET U. Mich. June prelim 1-yr inflation Mixed
• 7/17 8:30am July Empire Manufacturing Survey
• 7/18 8:30am July New York Fed Business Activity Survey
• 7/18 10am July NAHB Housing Market Index in-line
• 7/18 Manheim July Mid-Month Used Vehicle Value Index Tame
• 7/25 9am ET May S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 7/25 10am ET July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 7/26 2pm ET July FOMC rates decision Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET June PCE Tame
• 7/28 8:30am ET 2Q ECI Employment Cost Index Tame
• 7/28 10am ET July Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from June

• 6/1 10am ET May ISM Manufacturing Tame
• 6/2 8:30am ET May Jobs report Tame
• 6/5 10am ET May ISM Services Tame
• 6/7 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index May Tame
• 6/9 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 6/13 8:30am ET May CPI Tame
• 6/14 8:30am ET May PPI Tame
• 6/14 2pm ET April FOMC rates decision Tame
• 6/16 10am ET U. Mich. May prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 6/27 9am ET April S&P CoreLogic CS home price Tame
• 6/27 10am ET June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Tame
• 6/30 8:30am ET May PCE Tame
• 6/30 10am ET June Final U Mich 1-yr inflation Tame

Key data from May

• 5/1 10am ET April ISM Manufacturing (PMIs turn up) Positive inflection
• 5/2 10am ET Mar JOLTS Softer than consensus
• 5/3 10am ET April ISM Services Tame
• 5/3 2pm Fed May FOMC rates decision Dovish
• 5/5 8:30am ET April Jobs report Tame
• 5/5 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index April Tame
• 5/8 2pm ET April 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Better than feared
• 5/10 8:30am ET April CPI Tame
• 5/11 8:30am ET April PPI Tame
• 5/12 10am ET U. Mich. April prelim 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/12 Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker April Tame
• 5/24 2pm ET May FOMC minutes Dovish
• 5/26 8:30am ET PCE April Tame
• 5/26 10am ET U. Mich. April final 1-yr inflation Tame
• 5/31 10am ET JOLTS April job openings