FLASH INTRADAY: Since 1945, 2 positive consecutive closes 3/31 to 4/1 portends stronger than normal April gains vs other years, +2.4% vs +1.3%

REMINDER: We are not publishing a COVID-19 BLAST tomorrow, because Friday is a market holiday



STRATEGY: Since 1945, 2 positive consecutive closes 3/31 to 4/1 portends stronger than normal April gains vs other years, +2.4% vs +1.3%
For the past few weeks, the S&P 500 has been choppy, as a few transitory factors roiled investor confidence and markets:
– rate-mageddon (known issue)
– quad-witching (known headwind)
– massive leverage unwind by 6 prime brokers (past week)


As these headwinds faded, earlier this week, we postulated that a “face ripper” rally could happen.  And the S&P 500 has managed to produce gains for the past 2 consecutive days, 3 consecutive days for small-caps:


                                Russell
            S&P 500      2000
– 3/30    -0.1%          +1.7%        
– 3/31   +0.4%          +1.1%
– 4/1     +0.7%          +0.9%


Since 1945, this portends stronger than usual gains for April.  As many are aware, April is seasonally the strongest month of the year.  There is a great chart by Ryan Detrick of LPL Financial that shows this data.

And as shown below, when 3/31 and 4/1 are both positive price dates, the follow-through for the rest of April is very good.

– 2 consecutive positive –> +2.4% gains 4/2 to month-end
– not the case                –>  +1.3%

So you can see, even as April is seasonally strong, gains are even stronger if we are positive both on 3/31 and on 4/1. That is the case today.

FLASH INTRADAY: Since 1945, 2 positive consecutive closes 3/31 to 4/1 portends stronger than normal April gains vs other years, +2.4% vs +1.3%

Source: Fundstrat




And as the LPL chart below shows, April is already a good month for stocks.  But a strong close into March month-end and first day of April is actually a better sign.


FLASH INTRADAY: Since 1945, 2 positive consecutive closes 3/31 to 4/1 portends stronger than normal April gains vs other years, +2.4% vs +1.3%

Source: LPL



Finally, the other tactical positive is the VIX is sinking again.  As we write this intraday FLASH, the VIX is now below 18.  This is a pre-pandemic reading.

– take a look below
– the VIX is back to pre-COVID-19 levels

FLASH INTRADAY: Since 1945, 2 positive consecutive closes 3/31 to 4/1 portends stronger than normal April gains vs other years, +2.4% vs +1.3%

Source: Fundstrat and Bloomberg


BOTTOM LINE: If VIX is pre-COVID-19 levels, shouldn’t economic and ultimately Epicenter stocks recover?
The bottom line is this is a positive environment and risk/reward for stocks.  This keeps us constructive.

Our favorites:
– Energy
– Industrials
– Consumer Discretionary

plus
– Small-caps


Happy Easter to everyone. He is risen indeed!!!!

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