Signal From Noise

Ukraine Looking Forward: Recovery Prospects and Investment Ideas

“Peace on earth, good will toward men.”

Regardless of your faith, at this time of year, it is customary to reflect on the past 12 months and hope for a better world in the year to come. In 2022, we saw more armed conflict in Myanmar that claimed 18,327 lives; continued unrest in Afghanistan (3,822 fatalities in 2022); a drug war in Mexico (7,200 lives this year); and a continuation of the Yemeni Civil War (6,550 lives lost in 2022) – among others around the globe. On the bright spot, we did see the tentative end this year of a civil war in Ethiopia between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and the ruling government.

That good news was canceled out by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.  Fatality counts and economic costs are imprecise, but the U.S. military estimates 100,000 military casualties (killed or wounded) on the Ukrainian side, and a similar number on the Russian side.  Outside observers also believe there have been a “significant” number of Ukrainian civilian fatalities – some estimates already exceed 10,000. This is to say nothing of the tens of millions of displaced Ukrainians due to the invasion.

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But this is a season for hope.

In the spring of this year, many feared that Ukraine would quickly fall to...

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