First Word Intraday Alert
Macro Strategy
First Word Intraday Alert
Macro Strategy
- Intraday First Word
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: March CPI creates max pain moment. Why is CPI "hot" but U Mich shows falling inflation expectations? "hot" CPI due to same issues --> auto insurance and auto-related
March CPI released came in "hot" with Core CPI of +0.36% vs Street of +0.30% and this is triggering a sizable sell-off in equities. This is fueling the skepticism of the "inflation is stubborn" cohorts, but as we discuss below, this is a "maximum pain" moment for stocks -- that...
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Equities over-reacting to "hot" Jan CPI. The 1Q24 top will be when "stocks sell off on good news" -- so today is not likely the top.
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO CLIENTS OF FS INSIGHT Equites are selling off >1% today ($IWM off >3%) after Jan CPI came in "hot" vs consensus with Core CPI +0.39% (vs consensus +0.30%). Is this an over-reaction? Yes. Should investors buy this dip? Yes. We think this is...
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INTRADAY ALERT: Solid Dec Jobs report adds concerns Fed "higher for longer" and adds to misery of early 2024. Just a reminder 1H24 is likely tough.
The first 4 trading days of 2024 have been a terrible start for equities with S&P 500 ($SPY) down -1.6% and the Russell 2000 (small-caps, $IWM) down -3.5%. As our members are aware, for the last few years (the case for longer), the year tends to play out in January....
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Nov Core PCE +0.06% vs +0.20% Street shows inflation glide path lower. Sustains case for YE equity rally.
The Nov Core PCE Deflator was released today and came in at +0.06% MoM, inline with tireless Ken's +0.07% and well below Street consensus of +0.20%.The key takeaway is that inflation is falling like a rock. One can look at Core PCE MoM since the start of 2023 and the...
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Nov core CPI details better than headline beat of +0.28% (vs +0.30%). Buy the dip.
The Nov Core CPI was released today. The headline was slightly higher at +0.10% vs +0.0% expected and the Core came in at +0.28 vs Street +0.30%. The more important fact is the details are better than the headline:Of the top 4 contributors to core CPI in Nov: - Shelter...
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Nov jobs report basically in-line, not enough to sway Fed hawkish into Dec FOMC.
The Nov jobs report released this am is overall benign with slightly more jobs added (+199k vs Street +185k) and details as well with unemployment rate dropping to 3.7% (vs 3.9% expected) or avg hourly earnings +4% YoY (inline).The rise in jobs vs October has a lot to do with...
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor risk-on into YE, as we noted last night. Cancelling "zig-zag" call until 12/13
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO MEMBERS OF FS INSIGHT REMINDER: Tomorrow we are presenting our 2024 Year Ahead at 1:00 PM ET. Please be sure to tune in. Register for Tom Lee's 2024 Year Ahead HERE. We have been watching the S&P 500 close on 12/5, as this...
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor rally into Friday. U Mich inflation "nothing burger"
THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO MEMBERS OF FS INSIGHT Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. U Mich 1-yr inflation Nov final came in at 4.5%, slightly higher than consensus of 4.4%. To me, it is also not relevant since we know headline and core inflation are now in a steep...
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INTRADAY ALERT: 'Soft' Oct CPI with only 7 of 31 Core components seeing inflation. Wow. Face ripper intact. YE rally thesis intact.
A "face ripper" rally is underway as today's October CPI report vastly undershot consensus.Core CPI came in at +0.23% MoM vs consensus +0.30%As we noted in multiple notes this week, Consensus was leaning "hotter" as many forecasts at +0.34% to +0.38%The softside reading came in the right places - Shelter...
- Intraday First Word
INTRADAY ALERT: Sept CPI in-line except for a boggling +51% rise in hotel CPI. Buy this dip as Sept CPI is good enough to keep Fed on pause
THIS INTRADAY ALERT WILL REPLACE TOMORROW MORNING'S FIRST WORD (10/13) AND TONIGHT'S MACRO MINUTE VIDEO (10/12) September CPI, released this morning, was largely in line with Core CPI coming in at +0.32% vs Street of +0.30 and last month's +0.28%. The largest contributor to the rise in Sept Core CPI...
