INTRADAY ALERT: April Core CPI +0.29% MoM is a good thing, with auto insurance and shelter easing. Supports stocks higher in May.

The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members
The video in this report is only accessible to members

THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO MEMBERS OF FS Insight

April Core CPI came in at +0.29% MoM, below Street consensus of +0.30%. This was a clean "good" CPI reading, with the right components showing a slowdown:

  • The 2 things we watched closely showed improvement:
    - Shelter slowed modestly to +0.38% MoM vs +0.42% last month
    - Auto insurance slowed to +1.76% vs +2.58% last month
  • Both are expected to continue to slow and as we said, these 2 components are 1.87% of the excess YoY inflation, so as they slow, this will pull down CPI.
  • Good inflation remains negative at -0.11% MoM and used cars fell further to -1.38% MoM vs -1.11% last month, but used car realtime prices falling faster than that.
  • Finally, the only item seeing meaningful inflation was Apparel surging at +1.20% vs +0.65% last month. Does anyone believe apparel is surging?

Bottom line: This was a good CPI print and justifies stocks to rise into the end of the month. The next key data point is April PCE at the end of the month. This should further keep Fed dovish tilted.

The video in this report is only accessible to members

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36 Granny Shot Ideas and 44 SMID Granny Shot Ideas: We performed our quarterly rebalance on 4/16. Full stock list here -> Click here

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