INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor rally into Friday. U Mich inflation "nothing burger"

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INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor rally into Friday. U Mich inflation nothing burger
INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor rally into Friday. U Mich inflation nothing burger
INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor rally into Friday. U Mich inflation nothing burger

THIS INTRADAY ALERT IS SENT SOLELY TO MEMBERS OF FS INSIGHT

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone.

U Mich 1-yr inflation Nov final came in at 4.5%, slightly higher than consensus of 4.4%. To me, it is also not relevant since we know headline and core inflation are now in a steep downward glidepath.

  • This tweet from Whaley caught my eye. He notes that when equities are positive into Wed of Thanksgiving, stocks gained Wed + Friday 30 of 30 times.
  • Our data science team led by tireless Ken verified these results. Indeed, this is the case.
  • Since 1970, under the above conditions:
    – Wed up 93% of the time (today)
    – Friday up 83% of the time
    – Wed + Friday positive 100% of the time, average gain +1.04% or 45 S&P 500 points

Bottom line: YE rally thesis intact.

Bottom line, the YE rally thesis intact. Next week is Oct Core PCE which likely is positive.

Have a great Thanksgiving.

INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor rally into Friday. U Mich inflation nothing burger
Source: X.com
INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor rally into Friday. U Mich inflation nothing burger

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INTRADAY ALERT: Probabilities favor rally into Friday. U Mich inflation nothing burger

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