Mon December 6, 2021

Incoming anecdotes show Omicron mild, but US vaccinations surge to 2.25mm daily. Scenario analysis shows 3 of 4 leading to YE rally

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: SCENARIO ANALYSIS SHOWS 3 OF 4 LEADING TO YE RALLY _OMICRON __HAS BEEN SPREADING...

Fri December 3, 2021

Markets Have Roller Coaster Week, Friday's Losses Cut In Last Hours of Trading

The S&P 500 closed at 4,538.43 down from last week 4,697.96. The VIX settled at $30.51 but got above $35 in intraday activity. The sell-off was mitigated by positive Omicron...

Fri December 3, 2021

Financial Markets Panicked This Week, On The Double Whammy of Omicron + Powell Taper

In other words, Omicron is truly an anagram (hint, moronic). We will discuss the catastrophic impact on financial markets later in this note, but as we know, financial markets often:fire,...

Fri December 3, 2021

A lot of market dislocations this week, and Omicron US cases number >5 already. AAII sentiment collapse shows lots of bad news baked in

NOTE: MANY SUBSCRIBERS DID NOT RECEIVE THIS MORNING'S FIRST WORD PUBLICATION AS A RESULT OF TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES. THIS IS A RESEND TO ENSURE ALL CLIENTS ARE NOTIFIED OF TODAY'S RELEASE....

Wed December 1, 2021

Two 90% down days are a sign of a bottom, not a top

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: TWO 90% DOWN DAYS ARE A SIGN OF A BOTTOM, NOT A TOP _Market absolutely...

Tue November 30, 2021

Fed lift-off getting pushed off + 20% drop in VIX = risk-on probabilities soar (buy this dip)

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: VIX DOWN -20% + VIX TERM STRUCTURE STEEPENING = RISK-ON PROBABILITY SOAR _COVID-19 cases will...

Mon November 29, 2021

Omicron is an anagram (read below) and likely to turn Black Friday to Green Cyber Monday

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: OMICRON IS AN ANAGRAM (READ BELOW) AND LIKELY TO TURN BLACK FRIDAY TO GREEN CYBER...

Wed November 24, 2021

US case surge is slowing, a temporary reprieve? Cases rising in 33 states (+3). "Last bullet fired" as White House SPR release backfires = buy Energy stocks

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: "LAST BULLET FIRED" AS WHITE HOUSE SPR RELEASE BACKFIRES = BUY ENERGY STOCKS _Thanksgiving...

Tue November 23, 2021

COVID-19 has essentially disappeared in Japan, not due to vaccinations. Powell re-nomination strengthens the case for stocks into YE and into 2022

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: POWELL RE-NOMINATION STRENGTHENS THE CASE FOR STOCKS INTO YE AND INTO 2022 _COVID-19 HAS...

Mon November 22, 2021

Lockdowns meant to prevent overloading hospitals, if so, European policymakers panicking too early. Equities digesting and consolidating ahead of the prime seasonal period

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: EQUITIES DIGESTING AND CONSOLIDATING AHEAD OF THE PRIME SEASONAL PERIOD _EUROPEAN COVID-19 FATIGUE TRIGGERING...

Fri November 19, 2021

Market Slightly Up For The Week, Gains Supported By Strength in Large-Cap Tech

The S&P 500 closed at 4,697.96 which was up from last week’s close of 4,682.86.Big tech stocks such as Apple and Nvidia have been holding the indexes as high levels...

Fri November 19, 2021

White House is Keeping Market on “Cliff Edge”, Cases Now Rising in 30 states.

Wave 4 is underway and this is not surprising this is our base case. We also expect this surge to peak below wave 3 peak of 300,000 cases per day....