Mon December 20, 2021

3 reasons the Omicron panic cycle differs from past variants...Tracking for tradeable low 12/22-12/24 per M. Newton

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday - Thomas Lee's 2022 Outlook @ 3pm SKIP WEDNESDAY SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY - Christmas Holiday ------------------------- SAVE THE DATE:...

Fri December 17, 2021

S&P 500 Closes Down For The Week After Fed Statement and Ping Pong Between Growth/Value Relative Leadership

The S&P 500 closed at 4620.64 which is down from  4712 last Friday. The VIX settled at a pretty tame $21.57.The Fed announced an accelerated tapering schedule this week and...

Fri December 17, 2021

Omicron Creating Surge In Cases, But Not Severity= Hysteria But Little Bite

While many might view this as a drastic step, Cornell was done with classes, but this week would have been finals week. So there is an impact for students. Source: https://www....

Fri December 17, 2021

Omicron creating surge in cases, but not severity = hysteria but little bite. Inflation breakevens are falling in the US and Europe = market becoming less hawkish

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: OMICRON CREATING SURGE IN CASES, BUT NOT SEVERITY = HYSTERIA BUT LITTLE BITE _This tweet...

Wed December 15, 2021

Omicron is 13% of cases in NY/NJ from 0% two weeks ago. Wednesday FOMC day = buy on the event

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: FOMC DAY = LOCAL TURNING POINT _Omicron is 13% of cases in NYC _The CDC...

Tue December 14, 2021

Nobody want to be a hero in front of FOMC and technicals have suffered some damage. But base case remains YE rally

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: NOBODY WANT TO BE A HERO IN FRONT OF FOMC AND TECHNICALS HAVE SUFFERED SOME...

Mon December 13, 2021

South Africa has no ICU / ventilator increase. FOMC meets this week, bond market has now priced in 3 rate hikes = is "hawkish pivot" priced in?

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: FOMC MEETS THIS WEEK, BOND MARKET HAS NOW PRICED IN 3 RATE HIKES = IS...

Fri December 10, 2021

S&P 500 Closes At ATH High Despite Hot Inflation Numbers and Impending Fed Meeting, Has Best Week in 10 months

The S&P 500 closed at 4712., which is significantly above the 4,538.43 last Friday. Amazingly, the VIX settled under $19 today after closing a week ago at $30.51 after settling...

Fri December 10, 2021

Base Case Remains Rally Into YE

But equity markets and consumers (based on google trends) perceive far more severe risk from Omicron. Thus, to the extent that Omicron proves to be milder, the more likely it...

Wed December 8, 2021

Decisions by the gut(ter) --> Denmark finds Omicron in sewage and gives up trying to contain it. Base case remains rally into YE

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: BASE CASE REMAINS RALLY INTO YE NOTICE!!! _I wanted to give you a heads...

Tue December 7, 2021

USA cases average back above 100,000 per day = seasonal impact. Why "transitory inflation" is our base case. 1.96% of the 2.57% rise in inflation looks transient.

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: MYTH VS REALITY --> OMICRON + INFLATION --> OUR BIGGEST VARIANCE IS BET ON...

Mon December 6, 2021

Incoming anecdotes show Omicron mild, but US vaccinations surge to 2.25mm daily. Scenario analysis shows 3 of 4 leading to YE rally

We publish on a 4-day a week schedule: Monday Tuesday Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY SKIP FRIDAY STRATEGY: SCENARIO ANALYSIS SHOWS 3 OF 4 LEADING TO YE RALLY _OMICRON __HAS BEEN SPREADING...