Nobody want to be a hero in front of FOMC and technicals have suffered some damage. But base case remains YE rally

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STRATEGY: Nobody want to be a hero in front of FOMC and technicals have suffered some damage. But base case remains YE rally

US is waiting for Omicron surge
Daily cases in the US have flattened recently, and if the world was only dealing with Delta, policymakers would likely be declaring the pandemic is moving to the endemic stage. But for now, the US is waiting for the Omicron surge seen in South Africa.

- as shown below, USA cases have been stable for the past 3 weeks
- and positivity rate seems to be rolling over
- all this shows is that Delta wave is nearing its end
- but Omicron is not yet widely reflected

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Even the 7D delta shows that cases are not really rising week over week (versus same day 7 days ago) and is a sign of a flattening trend. And in the absence of a new strain/variant, we would look at this more conclusively.

And even positivity rate at 8% is down from > 10% a few weeks ago. We know testing is adequate and this drop in positivity is actually a good sign. But given the Omicron variant lurking, we think positivity rate may soon surge.

- but as many nations report, Omicron has seen less severe ...

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