Signal From Noise

Signal From Noise: Making Better Investment Decisions

“Life is a sum of all your choices.” – Albert Camus, French philosopher 

One of the most controversial decisions in Super Bowl history occurred in the closing seconds of Super Bowl XLIX in 2015. With 26 seconds left and down four, the Seattle Seahawks had the ball on second down at the New England Patriots’ one-yard line. Most expected Seahawks coach Pete Carroll to call for a handoff to running back Marshawn Lynch, one of the best running backs in the NFL. 

But Carroll called for quarterback Russell Wilson to pass, and New England intercepted the ball, winning the Super Bowl. The Washington Post called the decision “the worst play-call in Super Bowl history” and a USA Today headline stated: “What on Earth Was Seattle Thinking With Worst Play Call In NFL History?”

Yet all the headlines and Monday Morning quarterbacks missed something hidden in plain sight: The decision to throw the ball was sound, if not brilliant. An interception was a doubtful outcome. Out of 62 passes attempted from an opponent’s one-yard line during the season, zero had been intercepted. In the previous 15 seasons, the interception rate in that situation? 2%. Many people blamed Carroll for the loss, but he made a sound decision based on the information available. He just ...

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