As we inched toward 2022, the market was aware of inflationary dynamics and the start of monetary tightening. But investors were blindsided when both factors impacted markets more than anticipated. Thus, investors went from high levels of greed to a position of fear, while the S&P 500 registered its first annual decline since 2018 and its worst year since 2008. 

Into 2023, the question becomes: Can the Fed accomplish a soft landing that curbs inflation?

Nobody knows for sure, and the future is uncertain. According to Bloomberg, the average forecast expects the S&P 500 to end 2023 at about 4,000, the most bearish outlook since 1999. The range in predictions represents the widest dispersion since 2009.

In other words, there’s a lot of noise out there, and that’s where Signal From Noise comes in. This column presents you with ideas to consider, away from the crowded financial news space, away from the latest trend in vogue. Oaktree’s Howard Marks, a billionaire, says, “the short run is by far the least important thing. What matters is the long run. We try to buy the stocks of companies that will become more valuable, and the debt of companies that will repay their debts. It’s very simple. Isn’t that a good idea?”

Think long-term, away from th...
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