Wed November 22, 2023

Nov FOMC minutes reveal "stale" view of inflation risks = room for Fed to move dovish Dec.

WE DISCUSS: The Nov FOMC minutes showed that views around upside risks to inflation seem stale.  By the time we get to Dec FOMC, there will be 2 additional CPI...

Mon November 20, 2023

Semiconductor sector risk/reward & NVDA revisited ahead of earnings

NEAR-TERM TREND FOR US EQUITIES IS BULLISH, BUT GETTING EXTENDED AS PART OF NEGATIVE MOMENTUM CONDITIONS ON WEEKLY AND MONTHLY CHARTS.  TREASURY YIELDS AND US DOLLAR MIGHT WEAKEN INTO US...

Mon November 20, 2023

Shortened holiday week but we expect a positive bias. FOMC minutes to bring focus Fed "dot plots" too high = positive for equities

We discuss: We see a positive bias this week with the shortened holiday for several reasons including improving consumer mood, FOMC minutes drive focus on Dec "dot plot" and positive...

Tue November 7, 2023

Crude breakdown kicks off Nov decline and weakness possible until late month – Selectivity important

SPX AND QQQ HAVE SURGED ON ABOVE-AVERAGE BREADTH AND HAVE CARVED OUT IMPULSIVE RALLIES OVER THE PAST WEEK.  THIS IS LIKELY A POSITIVE FOR GAINS TO NEAR EARLY OCTOBER HIGHS...

Mon November 6, 2023

Breadth surge important, but doesn’t supply all the answers

SPX AND QQQ HAVE SURGED ON ABOVE-AVERAGE BREADTH AND HAVE CARVED OUT IMPULSIVE RALLIES OVER THE PAST WEEK.  THIS IS LIKELY A POSITIVE FOR GAINS INTO LATE THIS WEEK.  HOWEVER,...

Wed November 1, 2023

Short-term Equity and Treasury lows are in place, but intermediate-term challenges remain

SPX AND QQQ HAVE MADE THEIR SHORT-TERM BOTTOM AS OF LAST FRIDAY AND ARE NOW LIKELY ON A THREE-WAVE BOUNCE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.   INTEREST RATES CAN DROP FURTHER INTO...

Tue October 3, 2023

Sentiment getting more fearful as SPX nears the “Moment of Truth”

US EQUITY MARKETS SHOULD BE NEARING AN AREA OF SUPPORT, BUT YET TUESDAY’S DECLINE WAS MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE TECHNICALLY SPEAKING, AND MCCARTHY’S OUSTER POST MARKET CLOSE LEAVES MARKET WITH...

Wed September 20, 2023

Technology ETF (XLK) weakens to levels near support at August lows

US EQUITY INDICES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER AS TREASURY YIELDS HAVE PUSHED HIGHER THIS WEEK.  SPX AND QQQ MIGHT NOT BREAK AUGUST LOWS RIGHT AWAY, HOWEVER, AND TECHNICALLY THERE COULD...

Mon September 18, 2023

Equal-weighted SPX vs. SPX reaches lowest levels since 2020

US EQUITY INDICES AND TREASURY YIELDS REMAIN QUITE CHOPPY, BUT THE WEAKNESS COINCIDING WITH YIELDS PUSHING UP STILL LOOKS TO EXTEND THIS WEEK WHICH IS ONE OF THE MORE SEASONALLY...

Fri September 15, 2023

ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.

We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB yesterday and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration:...

Mon September 11, 2023

Important week ahead, and we expect August CPI (9/13) of +0.20% core or less to further reduce odds of a Nov hike, a positive for equities. Even as UAW strike looms.

We discuss: An important week lies ahead, most notably August CPI on 9/13 but also $AAPL debut and potential UAW strike.  That said, we still view Sept as front-loaded on...

Fri September 8, 2023

Headwinds now, but expect tailwinds to prevail in Sept. Upward revisions in profits strongest argument against recession.

We discuss: How headwinds of VIX, yields, apprehension are growing.  But tailwinds are emerging this month as well.  The most notable is EPS revisions inflected positive and along with other...