Wed September 20

Technology ETF (XLK) weakens to levels near support at August lows

US EQUITY INDICES HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER AS TREASURY YIELDS HAVE PUSHED HIGHER THIS WEEK.  SPX AND QQQ MIGHT NOT BREAK AUGUST LOWS RIGHT AWAY, HOWEVER, AND TECHNICALLY THERE COULD...

Mon September 18

Equal-weighted SPX vs. SPX reaches lowest levels since 2020

US EQUITY INDICES AND TREASURY YIELDS REMAIN QUITE CHOPPY, BUT THE WEAKNESS COINCIDING WITH YIELDS PUSHING UP STILL LOOKS TO EXTEND THIS WEEK WHICH IS ONE OF THE MORE SEASONALLY...

Fri September 15

ECB makes dovish turn, risk rallies… a harbinger to when that day arrives for Fed. Removing tactical OW of regional banks.

We discuss: It’s been a data heavy week, but the big news is ECB yesterday and it’s dovish impact on bond markets. Please click below to view today’s Macro Minute (Duration:...

Mon September 11

Important week ahead, and we expect August CPI (9/13) of +0.20% core or less to further reduce odds of a Nov hike, a positive for equities. Even as UAW strike looms.

We discuss: An important week lies ahead, most notably August CPI on 9/13 but also $AAPL debut and potential UAW strike.  That said, we still view Sept as front-loaded on...

Fri September 8

Headwinds now, but expect tailwinds to prevail in Sept. Upward revisions in profits strongest argument against recession.

We discuss: How headwinds of VIX, yields, apprehension are growing.  But tailwinds are emerging this month as well.  The most notable is EPS revisions inflected positive and along with other...

Thu August 24

Jackson Hole technical playbook following SPX reversal 

MARKETS INTRA-DAY REVERSAL DOESN’T TAKE AWAY FROM TECHNICAL THINKING THAT A NEAR-TERM LOW IS LIKELY IN PLACE.  WHILE SPX FAILED TO JOIN QQQ IN ITS DOWNTREND LINE BREAKOUT PER THURSDAY’S...

Tue August 15

Lows have proven elusive but Tech is holding up relatively strong

MARKETS HAVE ENTERED A WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL LOW, BUT THUS FAR HAVE NOT TURNED ACCORDING TO PRE-ELECTION YEAR AUGUST SEASONALITY NOR DEMARK’S COMPLETED TD BUY SETUPS.  WHILE TUESDAY’S CLOSE CERTAINLY...

Fri July 28

BOJ move sparks JGB decline and China, Gold breakout

MARKETS HAVE ENTERED A WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL SHORT-TERM TREND CHANGE, BUT THURSDAY’S DECLINE FAILED TO RESULT IN ANY DOWNSIDE FOLLOW-THROUGH FOLLOWING THE BOJ DECISION.  NEAR-TERM, AN SPX-4500-4620 RANGE STILL LOOKS...

Fri July 14

Tanking Inflation Drives Markets Higher

“From one thing, know ten thousand things.” ~Miyamoto Musashi Good evening: With this week’s rally, the S&P 500 has completed 77% of the retracement of its entire bear-market decline from...

Fri July 7

US Dollar has begun its decline back to new 2023 lows

TREND BULLISH- EXPECTING THAT MINOR PULLBACKS SHOULD PROVE SHORT-LIVED AHEAD OF PUSH HIGHER BACK ABOVE SPX-4500 This week’s churning in US Equities can’t yet be called complete, but a rally...

Thu July 6

Why Treasury yields might be closer to breaking down than breaking out

TREND BULLISH - EXPECT THIS TWO-DAY PULLBACK WILL NOT BREAK INITIAL SUPPORT AT 4384 BEFORE PUSHING HIGHER TO EXCEED 4458 ON ITS WAY TO 4500 BEFORE ANY REAL STALLOUT OCCURS. ...

Mon June 26

Transport Avg breaking out to highest in nearly three months

TREND BULLISH - MINOR PULLBACK HAS NOT DONE MUCH DAMAGE DESPITE BEING DOWN 5 OF THE LAST 6 DAYS.  MEANINGFUL SUPPORT SHOULD MATERIALIZE BETWEEN 4275-4320 S&P has now declined 5...