Fri July 29, 2022

The August 1982 moment: bear market "bottom" before Fed pivots -- if true, new highs coming sooner than most expect

The biggest takeaway for me on events of this week? Convincing and arguably decisive evidence the "bottom is in" -- the 2022 bear market is over.this was a big data...

Mon July 25, 2022

After July FOMC, entire yield curve will be at or above "neutral rate" = optionality = 2H rally view intact

A big data week is ahead, with 3 major data incoming:7/27 is July FOMC --> +75bp is base case and few surprises expected7/28 2Q GDP --> investors expecting negative print...

Fri July 22, 2022

5 reasons equities rallying. Expanding breadth affirms 2022 "bottom" is in. P/E can expand with Fed hikes, as long as "shocks" are avoided. 2H rally.

We are starting to see strengthening internals for equity markets, including key leadership improvements from Technology ($QQQ) and small-caps ($IWM) and measures such as advance/decline lines. Thus, from the perspective...

Wed July 20, 2022

Roundtable takeaways: Proximity (if not already) at lows for bear. EPS risk lower than consensus expects. OW Tech/Growth.

If you missed our FSinsight Roundtable, - click HERE for the replay   ______________________________________________ _SUMMARY: ROUNDTABLE WITH GROUP HEADS, CONTRASTING AND HARMONIZING THE VIEWS ACROSS SECTOR HEADS_ We hosted a...

Mon July 18, 2022

Cooling "soft data" argues Fed playbook soon change to more predictable. In 1982, took only 4 mos to erase entire Volcker "bear market"

Most investors, based upon my conversations, remain skeptical that markets can find any footing, particularly in the face of continuing bad CPI reports. But I think investors are overlooking that...

Fri July 15, 2022

Despite a flat out bad June CPI report, Fed officials sound "measured" (vs "expeditious") ...arguably enabling equities to see "less bad"

In the 36 hours since the horrific June CPI report, equities have managed to better with Technology stocks managing gains.initial "hawkish" market reaction was to price near 100% odds of...

Wed July 13, 2022

Perspective on June CPI. Gasoline might be "deflationary" in July CPI if 9 prior oil declines are precedent.

THIS IS AN INTRADAY FIRST WORD TO DISCUSS ENERGY UPSIDE SURPRISE IN JUNE CPI _GASOLINE MIGHT BE "DEFLATIONARY" IN JULY IF 9 PRIOR OIL DECLINES ARE PRECEDENT_ The June CPI...

Wed July 13, 2022

Updating Granny Shots. Is June the last "really bad" CPI, enabling Fed reaction function shift from "expeditious" to "measured"

The story for much of 2022 has been that of markets and Fed trying to keep up with surging inflation. And as the chart below simply illustrates, for much of...

Fri June 24, 2022

LEAD VS LAG: Case strengthening inflationary drivers peaked ("lead"), even if CPI remains elevated ("lag") = market perception lagging

Incoming data this week has pointed to a pronounced softening of economic momentum globally, and this has pushed commodity prices lower and similarly pushed down interest rates. And this has...

Fri April 8, 2022

Stocks Struggle in The First Week of the Second Quarter

The market had a down week in the face of a hawkish tone from several Fed speeches and events that make it look like the bond market may have been...

Fri April 8, 2022

“Finkle Is Einhorn?!”- Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Explained, Granny Shots Updated

We pay heed to the market adage “don’t fight the Fed.” While Dudley is no longer a Fed member, many believe he is communicating a message from the Fed. But...

Wed April 6, 2022

Updating "Granny Shots" adding 7 names, deleting 9 -- seasonals favor inflection in "Pure Growth" + further upside in "Quality Defensive"

We publish on a 3-day a week schedule: Monday SKIP TUESDAY Wednesday SKIP THURSDAY Friday STRATEGY: UPDATING "GRANNY SHOTS" ADDING 7 NAMES, DELETING 9 -- SEASONALS FAVOR INFLECTION IN "PURE...