STRATEGY: Dudley OpEd “If stocks don’t fall, the Fed needs to force them” shook markets Wednesday… are we living in a simulation?

Dudley OpEd “If stocks don’t fall, the Fed needs to force them” shook markets Wednesday… are we living in a simulation?
On Wednesday, Bill Dudley, former NY Fed Reserve Bank President (2009-2018) penned an OpEd arguing “if stocks don’t fall, the Fed needs to force them.” This triggered a fierce day of selling Wednesday and created almost unanimous consensus from market participants that the Fed is going to force growth to slow so sharply, the stock market will crash.

We pay heed to the market adage “don’t fight the Fed.” While Dudley is no longer a Fed member, many believe he is communicating a message from the Fed. But here is the thing:

  • it seems wrong headed to argue that
  • the primary way for Fed to transmit its monetary policy of hikes
  • is to force the stock market to fall
  • this message of “stocks need to fall, Feds need to force it” seems more appropriately the voice of the bond complex.
  • The $55 trillion industry is losing assets, seeing asset prices fall –> recession would re-invigorate the bond complex
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-04-06/if-stocks-don-t-fall-the-fed-needs...

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