stocks
- First Word
- First Word
Nasdaq went "no bid" on 9/13 with zero stocks advancing. 13 of 13 times, Nasdaq 100 higher median 12M gain 21%. When already >25% drawdown, median gain +64%
In 2H2022, there have been two separate days where markets saw massive declines:post-Jackson Hole on 8/26post-August CPI on 9/13 In both instances, equites were reacting to re-calibration of Fed expectations. That is, when investors see risk of tighter Fed, stocks have fallen in a broad retreat. The negative reaction to...
- First Word
Nasdaq down 7 days in a row, actually a constructive signal. Since 1970, stocks higher 74% of time 1M, 3M, 6M later.
Equities have sold off seemingly continuously since Jackson Hole (8/26), as the strong message from the Fed and uncertainty around Russia, China and economy have pushed equities to become "no bid" -- in fact, as many noted, the Nasdaq is down 7 consecutive days. Since 1970, this is pretty uncommon,...
- First Word
If 73% was peak (% stocks >20% off highs), “buy the dip” regime is back = 2H rally
Investors remain broadly cautious on equities. This is completely understandable given the carnage in markets this year, along with the great uncertainties associated with the trifecta of rising inflation, Russia-Ukraine war and "negative shocks" delivered by Fed hawkish policy. But as a counterpoint, one can be constructive if one believes...
- Signal From Noise
Three Stocks For Elevated Inflation and Volatility
"I like to compare the Fed's problem to the challenge of adjusting the shower in an old hotel, where there's a lag of 20 to 30 seconds between the time you turn the faucet and the time the water temperature changes. It's very hard to avoid scalding yourself or freezing...
- Tom Lee's Equity Strategy
Equities become ‘no bid’ and %-stocks >50D now 2.0%...4 stocks (of 9) need to fall to reach 1.2% seen Mar 23, 2020 and Dec. 24, 2018
Equities have suffered an utter meltdown in the past week as the hot inflation implications of U Mich and CPI pushed stocks into “no bid.” There are many explanations offered for this, but the ultimate takeaway is that equities are in the midst of liquidation. As @jasongoepfert of Sentiment Trader...
- Signal From Noise
- First Word
When pundits panic, investors should counter-trade. 5 of last 6 FOMC, stocks rallied
If someone asked us to explain the primary difference in our relatively more sanguine view of the world versus consensus, it is really the difference between "fighting the Fed" and "counter-trading the panic." In many recent reports, we highlight (and continue to do so) how the bond market is doing...
- Daily Technical Strategy
Despite US Stocks weakening, they’re still the “Best game in town”
This week’s breakdown in SPX and IWM to join QQQ keeps the near-term Equity trend down, and should result in February lows being testedGOOGL and FB breaking monthly lows means it’s still early to buy thesePharma ETF PPH nearing former breakout area, suggesting its likely right to buy dipsUS vs...
- Signal From Noise
Five Stocks For Seasonal and Style Factors
Identifying economic trends is critical to entering and exiting positions. We take you through some of our process for identifying beneficiaries of tactical themes in our Granny Shots portfolio.Keep in mind the importance of not shouting at the market, regardless of circumstances.Remember in investing that less can often be more....
- Your Weekly Roadmap
Stocks Struggle in The First Week of the Second Quarter
The market had another down week. While last week was firmly led by defensives, this week showed a bit more of a mix. Technology and Communication Services were the main losers. Energy, Materials, and Staples led by Consumer Discretionary and Industrials were also slightly in the green as well. Elon...