Fed Watch
Market Intelligence
Fed Watch
Market Intelligence
- Fed Watch
- Fed Watch
A Hawkish Pause, But What Comes Next?
Ahead of FOMC day, Head of Research Tom Lee noted that many investors were viewing the market from the lens of a conventional monetary policy cycle, leading them to expect a hard landing and remain leery of stocks until at least three or four rate cuts by the Fed. Instead,...
- Fed Watch
A 25 bp Rate Hike, but Will It Be the Last One?
The members of the FOMC voted on Wednesday, May 3 announced it would raise rates by +25 bp, as most on the Street predicted. The vote was unanimous. In its previous rate hike on March 22, the Fed wrote that “the committee anticipates that some additional policy forming may be...
- Fed Watch
Special Edition: Everything You Need to Know About Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made his much-anticipated keynote speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. While fixed income markets were largely positioned in anticipation of a hawkish message, equity markets retreated significantly, with the losses being the worst in high P/E equities. Powell had an abbreviated speech and...
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Fed Minutes: Despite Encouraging July CPI, Inflation Remains Far Too High
It’s not time for a victory lap just yet, even after markets have rallied substantially since their June lows, and an encouraging July CPI print pushed them higher. This week, the Fed released the minutes from its most recent policy meeting in late July. Fed officials, according to the minutes,...
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CPI and PPI Come in Below Expectations, Potentially Giving FOMC Some Breathing Room
There was finally some relief after a steady stream of hot inflation data. After 10 months of upside surprises, CPI finally came in lighter than expectations on Wednesday. Core CPI was slightly down and essentially flat, Food was slightly up, and Energy had the biggest drop and made the downside...
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Another pause as FOMC responds to trajectory of inflation
The penultimate FOMC meeting of 2023 was preceded by some dovish Fedspeak in October. For example:ATLANTA FED PRESIDENT RAPHAEL BOSTIC told the American Bankers Association, “I think our policy rate is in a sufficiently restrictive position to get inflation down to 2%,” suggesting, “I actually don’t think we need to...
- Fed Watch
FOMC minutes confirm Fed’s priority to fight inflation; US job growth remains solid
The FOMC minutes released this week showed further evidence that the Feds are centered on containing inflation. Investors cheered this week, though fears of a recession linger. FOMC policymakers judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points "would likely be appropriate at the next meeting" given the current...
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Some Relief on Fed’s Favorite Inflation Measure; Powell Says The Clock is Ticking on Preventing Sustained High Inflation
The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge came in this week. The PCE rose 0.2% in May but fell 0.5% when inflation was considered. Personal incomes were a similar story as well. They rose .5% but after being adjusted for inflation the number was down 0.1% while prices continued rising in May...
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Big U.S. Banks pass the Fed’s annual stress test
This week, amid concerns that central bankers could send the global economy into a recession, we learned that the 33 largest banks in the U.S. passed the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test. The test scenario included a 40% decline in commercial real estate prices, a 55% drop in stock prices,...
- Fed Watch
Fed Raises by 75 bps, Esther George Dissents, Markets Sell-Off on Thursday
In one of the more extraordinary Fed days in recent memory, the FOMC came in with the largest interest rate hike since 1994. To give a gut check, this is when Whitney Houston’s “I Will Always Love You” was at the top of the charts. The move was particularly significant...