Fed Watch
Market Intelligence
Fed Watch
Market Intelligence
- Fed Watch
- Fed Watch
Fed Responds to Inflation Progress, Economic Resilience
Throughout 2023 and going into the September 20, 2023 FOMC meeting, our view has continued to be that real-time data shows that inflation is on a glide path down, that the lagging metrics used to calculate inflation indicators would come to reflect that, and that when – not if –...
- Fed Watch
Was July the Last Hike of This Rate Cycle?
The FOMC was at top of mind for investors this week, with a hike on July 26 viewed (accurately, as it turns out) as a virtual certainty. On Monday, the CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of a 25bp hike (to 5.25%-5.50%) at 98.6%. Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee...
- Fed Watch
What Does The Fed’s November Hike Mean For Markets?
"As investors, we also always have to be aware of our innate and very human tendency to be fighting the last war. We forget that Mr. Market is an ingenious sadist, and that he delights in torturing us in different ways." - Barton Biggs Source: Reddit The Federal Reserve held...
- Fed Watch
What Does September’s Rate Hike and Dot Plot Mean For Markets?
The FOMC met yesterday to announce their latest rate hike. As the market for Fed Funds Futures implied leading up to the meeting, the committee decided on a 75-bps hike. We wanted to provide a special update on where things stand with the Fed and markets after their third-to-last meeting...
- Fed Watch
The Smoke Clears After Jackson Hole, Jobs Report Encouraging
Hot labor market cooled moderately as employers slowed the pace of hiring, more people sought to rejoin the labor force, and pace of wage growth moderated. Deceleration came as a relief in contrast to the red-hot data characterizing much of the past two years. While the August jobs data reported...
- Fed Watch
Capitulation: Dovish Shift for Fed at December FOMC Meeting
The Federal Reserve once again kept rates unchanged at the December 13 FOMC meeting, leaving them at levels set on July 26, 2023 and strengthening our long-held conviction that the Fed might be done with hikes for this cycle. Washington Policy Strategist Tom Block had previously emphasized that “Chair Powell...
- Fed Watch
Jobs surprise: U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July; CPI print coming next week
What recession? The good news: A much stronger than expected reading on July employment came in hot. The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department reported, far exceeding the 258,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6%, while average hourly earnings climbed 15 cents,...
- Fed Watch
Fed Raises by 75-bps But Signals More Normal Hikes Possible, PCE Comes in Hot
The Fed’s July meeting was on Wednesday and, as expected, the FOMC raised rates by 75 bps to a range of 2.25%-2.5%. This was the second consecutive jumbo rate hike. The two back-to-back hikes of 75 bps were actually the most stringent consecutive action since the beginning of the 1990s...
- Fed Watch
All Eyes on FOMC Meeting Next Week Amid Hot Inflation
Federal Reserve officials have indicated they are gravitating toward another 0.75-percentage-point rate rise at their July 26-27 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, even as they have faced questions about their willingness to do more than that to bring down high inflation. Central bankers have signaled they will do whatever it...
- Fed Watch
June CPI Report Comes In Hot, Fed Fund Futures Retreat After Initial Shock
The June CPI print came in at 9.1% on Wednesday on expectations of 8.8%. This was higher than expectations and the report did not give Fed officials any reprieve from persistently high price pressures. Shelter was problematic and so was gasoline. Hotels benefitting from revenge spending contributed as well. The...