Fed Watch
Market Intelligence
Fed Watch
Market Intelligence
- Fed Watch
- Fed Watch
Another pause as FOMC responds to trajectory of inflation
The penultimate FOMC meeting of 2023 was preceded by some dovish Fedspeak in October. For example:ATLANTA FED PRESIDENT RAPHAEL BOSTIC told the American Bankers Association, “I think our policy rate is in a sufficiently restrictive position to get inflation down to 2%,” suggesting, “I actually don’t think we need to...
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Fed Responds to Inflation Progress, Economic Resilience
Throughout 2023 and going into the September 20, 2023 FOMC meeting, our view has continued to be that real-time data shows that inflation is on a glide path down, that the lagging metrics used to calculate inflation indicators would come to reflect that, and that when – not if –...
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A Hawkish Pause, But What Comes Next?
Ahead of FOMC day, Head of Research Tom Lee noted that many investors were viewing the market from the lens of a conventional monetary policy cycle, leading them to expect a hard landing and remain leery of stocks until at least three or four rate cuts by the Fed. Instead,...
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A 25 bp Rate Hike, but Will It Be the Last One?
The members of the FOMC voted on Wednesday, May 3 announced it would raise rates by +25 bp, as most on the Street predicted. The vote was unanimous. In its previous rate hike on March 22, the Fed wrote that “the committee anticipates that some additional policy forming may be...
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What Does The Fed’s November Hike Mean For Markets?
"As investors, we also always have to be aware of our innate and very human tendency to be fighting the last war. We forget that Mr. Market is an ingenious sadist, and that he delights in torturing us in different ways." - Barton Biggs Source: Reddit The Federal Reserve held...
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Capitulation: Dovish Shift for Fed at December FOMC Meeting
The Federal Reserve once again kept rates unchanged at the December 13 FOMC meeting, leaving them at levels set on July 26, 2023 and strengthening our long-held conviction that the Fed might be done with hikes for this cycle. Washington Policy Strategist Tom Block had previously emphasized that “Chair Powell...
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Special Edition: Everything You Need to Know About Jackson Hole
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made his much-anticipated keynote speech at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium. While fixed income markets were largely positioned in anticipation of a hawkish message, equity markets retreated significantly, with the losses being the worst in high P/E equities. Powell had an abbreviated speech and...
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Fed Minutes: Despite Encouraging July CPI, Inflation Remains Far Too High
It’s not time for a victory lap just yet, even after markets have rallied substantially since their June lows, and an encouraging July CPI print pushed them higher. This week, the Fed released the minutes from its most recent policy meeting in late July. Fed officials, according to the minutes,...
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CPI and PPI Come in Below Expectations, Potentially Giving FOMC Some Breathing Room
There was finally some relief after a steady stream of hot inflation data. After 10 months of upside surprises, CPI finally came in lighter than expectations on Wednesday. Core CPI was slightly down and essentially flat, Food was slightly up, and Energy had the biggest drop and made the downside...
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Jobs surprise: U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July; CPI print coming next week
What recession? The good news: A much stronger than expected reading on July employment came in hot. The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department reported, far exceeding the 258,000 consensus estimate. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.6%, while average hourly earnings climbed 15 cents,...