Demographics Are Destiny
What influences markets and demand more than anything else? Well, if you zoom out and think about it a bit, it is obviously how many people there are and how much money they will have to spend. Yes, on any day there can be a thousand individual headlines moving markets to varying degrees, but ultimately the relatively predictable path of demographic changes is likely going to be one of the best masts you can tie your strategy to during stormy seas. Demographic trends are like trains, you can see them coming a mile away and if you don’t get out of their way before or hop aboard, they come to where you are, they will absolutely flatten you.
As you can see millennials will inevitably make up more and more of the consumption base for key products driving economic growth. Not only is a nearly unalterable reality, but they will also be inheriting trillions of dollars from the wealthiest generation in history, the Baby Boomers. So, the disparaging stereotypes of all generations in their youthful phases eventually erode as they become the primary consumers driving the economy. However, disregarding the sentiments of the younger generations, as many flaws as they may have, is always done at the peril of investors. Sometimes young people inherently understand the value of a technological trend ahead of the stodgy consensus.
Have you ever wondered why the prodigiously sized tiger appears bright orange? It doesn’t appear to be camouflaged with our primate perceptions. It seems counterintuitive that a beast that depends on stealth to support the massive calorie intake required for its survival would be one of the brightest and most distinguishable colors. To our perception, this makes no sense. However, to the primary prey of Tigers that are “color blind,” their adversary appears green. So, from the perspective of their intended prey, they are camouflaged. This type of different perception can be thought of as an analog for why sometimes younger generations are the best at spotting endurable trends.
When our Head of Research, Tom Lee, was getting his start in research he was a non-consensus voice on the then prospects of mobile telephones. Hindsight is of course 20/20, and we all now understand the significance of mobile phones and a huge portion of humanity carries one around daily. However, when the technology first emerged many on Wall Street thought that it was a niche product for the ultra-wealthy and any expansion would be curtailed by the powerful incumbent telecom industry.
When Tom has discussed this extraordinary call, he mentioned that he saw young people as voracious adopters of the technology who understood its potential. The old guard on Wall Street was “color blind” like a tiger’s prey, whereas Tom Lee and the young folks and pioneers he spent time within the course of his analysis saw a bright orange tiger ready to make mincemeat of legacy telecoms.
Series of 4~10 minutesLast updated10 months ago
An introduction to commodities for novice investors.
Series of 3~11 minutesLast updated1 year ago
Understanding Risk and Return: Hallmarks of Investing
Risk/return is so crucial to investing that it is sometimes considered the essential element of the whole craft. In this guide, we provide insights and tools to better understand risk and how to control it.
Series of 3~15 minutesLast updated11 months ago
Investor Psychology 100
You may have heard this before: Many of the world’s top investors manage their portfolios well because they manage their emotions well. But what does that look like? If you want to know more about investor psychology – arguably the most critical component of the entire game -- you’ve come to the right place. Let’s dive in.
Series of 8~22 minutesLast updated1 year ago
Financial Instruments! How to use them and what are they for!
In this guide, we will talk about financial instruments. We will cover stocks, bonds, various kinds of derivatives, and more!
Series of 1~6 minutesLast updated1 year ago
What is Ethereum?
We are launching a new guide covering Ethereum, the highlights from inception to the current state of the network!