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Overview
The FSI Sector Allocation strategy provides a disciplined, yet flexible, approach to seeking outperformance. The strategy can help investors with both longer-term and shorter term strategies. In addition, investors can use the FSI Sector Allocation list to implement a strategy primarily based on sector ETFs, or to allocate stock holdings based on sector weightings recommendations.
The stock list represents a merging of longer-term sector perspectives with short-term technical dynamics, appropriate for both active and passive investment methodologies.
Key Information
| Compiled by | |
| Universe | Sector ETF Allocation: S&P 500 Sector ETFS
Tactical ETF Allocation: Fundstrat's ETF Universe |
| Update frequency | Monthly |
| Time horizon | Flexible – options for tactical or strategic approaches, or a combination of both |
| Methodology | Starts with standard S&P 500 sector distribution, then adjusts weights/allocation based on sector ratings by Lee and Newton. Tactical allocations based on price trend, technical analysis, and other elements |
Methodology behind the FSI Sector Allocation
The new sector allocation model is comprised of two parts:
1. Sector ETF Allocation
- Passive - 50% of the 85% sector ETF allocation replicates the current sector distribution of the S&P 500 index.
- Strategic - 35% of the 85% sector ETF allocation is determined by the sector ratings of Fundstrat’s Head of Research, Tom Lee, and the sector technical rating of Fundstrat’s Head of Technical Strategy, Mark Newton.
- Short-term Momentum – We increase the weighting of the top 3 sectors with the strongest short-term momentum. Conversely, we reduce the weighting of the 3 sectors with the weakest short-term momentum.
- Price Momentum
- Valuation
2. Tactical ETF Allocation
Tactical ETF Allocation: 15% of sector allocation model. This portion is new to the model.
- During each monthly update, we select 5 individual ETFs from a universe of 65 ETFs.
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The selection process resembles our “Super Grannies” method and consists of four primary elements:
- ETF Rank
- Tactical Rank
- Price Trend
- Technical View from Fundstrat’s Head of Technical Strategy, Mark Newton.
An Outperform signal for a sector indicates that we advise an OVERWEIGHT benchmark weighting.
A Neutral signal for a sector indicates that we advise an EQUAL benchmark weighting.
An Underperform signal for a sector indicates that we advise a ZERO benchmark weighting.
We understand that some clients are only interested in the Sector ETF allocation. As such, we’ve also included a version of an allocation consisting solely of Sector ETFs.
FAQ
The FSI Sector Allocation list is updated during the first week of the month, though the precise day varies. Upticks is updated on an approximately monthly schedule. Core Stock Lists are updated at the discretion of the research team. Top Ideas and Bottom Ideas are updated approximately monthly.
Not at all. Many of our subscribers use the lists only as a source of ideas as they work to implement their own investment strategies.
As providers of investment research, FS Insight is regulatorily prohibited from providing investment advice such as what stocks to buy, at what price, and in what volumes. This would require a knowledge of the specifics of your financial situation.
The table below provides an easy way to compare and contrast each of the lists. For more information on a specific list, please click the menu to the left. In addition, each stock list includes a detailed introduction that includes a discussion of the methodologies and thinking behind the lists. Please note that some subscribers combine the ideas from multiple lists.
| Stock List | Compiled by | Components selected from | Time horizon | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upticks | Mark Newton | Predominantly selected from within the S&P 500 | Intermediate - four to six weeks | 100% technical analysis (no examination of macroeconomics or stock fundamentals) |
| FSI Sector Allocation |
Tom Lee, Ken Xuan, Mark Newton |
Sector ETF Allocation: S&P 500 Sector ETFS Tactical ETF Allocation: Fundstrat's ETF Universe |
Flexible – options for tactical or strategic approaches, or a combination of both. | Starts with standard S&P 500 sector distribution, then adjusts weights/allocation based on sector ratings by Lee and Newton. Tactical allocations based on price trend, technical analysis, and other elements. |
| Fundstrat Large-Cap Core List |
Tom Lee, Ken Xuan, Mark Newton |
Predominantly selected from within the S&P 500 | One year or more, ranked in order of timelieness | Fundstrat's proprietary blend of top-down and bottom-up analysis |
| Fundstrat SMID-Cap Core List |
Tom Lee, Ken Xuan, Mark Newton |
Predominantly selected from within the Russell 2500 | One year or more, ranked in order of timelieness | Fundstrat's proprietary blend of top-down and bottom-up analysis |
The various stock lists can be used as a list of actionable ideas that complement and enhance your existing investment strategy. The lists are not a replacement for your existing strategy, because except for the FSI Sector Allocation strategy, they're not strategies at all.
Those with a long-term view might wish to view the lists as ideas and suggestions on how to fill strategic and tactical allocation buckets, whether by market cap, industry, or sector. These allocation strategies can be based on the FSI Sector Allocation strategy or individually through the study of the regular research published by Tom Lee and Mark Newton, for example.
The research team at FS Insight is long-term constructive on the entire U.S. economy. The challenge, of course, is to identify those areas that represent what our work suggests is the best risk-reward ratio. The simple answer to why a stock makes it to our list is that the team behind that list believes it is among the best in this respect at this time. A stock can remain favored and still be removed from the list if the team believes another name has come to offer superior risk-reward. For investors who have included a stock in their portfolio at least partly due to its appearance on one of our lists, we suggest that its removal from that list should be viewed as a reminder to review whether the reasons why they invested in that stock are still valid, and not necessarily as a sell order.
The time horizons of our stock lists are each longer than a single day. As such, day-to-day and minute-to-minute market movements between updates are considered aggregately rather than individually or at the moment. While some subscribers use our stock lists to help guide their day-trading activities, each of the lists is updated just once per period.
There are multiple ways to use the stock lists, and the most appropriate way will vary from investor to investor. We strongly suggest that the best way for any investor to determine how to use the list is to stay current on the research notes that we publish. They help an investor develop a personalized context through which to interpret the list. It's important to also note that while each of the lists reflects research-driven insights about which stocks are likely to offer the greatest risk-reward, risk is a function of probability rather than certainty.
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