Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns "never short a dull market

VIDEO: Equity markets staged what we view as an upside breakout on positive fundamental news and encouraging sentiment developments.

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:01).

Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market

Today, we re-introduced our “Super Grannies” (most timely) and “Sleeper Grannies” large-cap stock ideas. In client polls conducted during our webinars:

  • 46% cited tariffs as their top concern.
  • 7% cited deportation, up from 41% total (tariffs + deportation) in the prior month.

are investors too cautious? We turn to the old adage “never short a dull market”.
Consider:

  • The VIX has seen a few intra-day spikes in recent sessions but is settling back toward the 15 level—historically associated with calmer markets.
  • Over the past 10 days, the S&P 500 has seen multiple intra-day pullbacks, only to find buyers stepping in. On 7 of the past 9 trading days, investors “bought the dip.”
  • This reaffirms the market’s resilience despite policy-related jitters.

Client polls from today’s webinar also showed 63% of investors selected FANG as their favorite idea for 2025 (up from 56% the prior month). This comes as only 3 of the mag 7 are up on a YTD basis. But consider:

  • Roughly 48% of stocks are outperforming the broader index
  • a marked improvement compared to the more narrow leadership of the past two years

Lastly, a key macro development today:

  • The February Manheim mid-month update registered a -1.1% MoM decline, counter to prior expectations that used car prices might stabilize or even firm.
  • Historically, wholesale used car prices (as tracked by Manheim) tend to lead retail prices by roughly two months.
  • Meaning, this drop could signal downward pressure on the used-vehicles component of CPI going forward.

Bottom Line: Stay on Target

  • The top sector ideas remain:
  •  Bitcoin
  •  Small-caps
  •  Financials
  •  Industrials
  •  Technology
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market

Key incoming data February:

  • 2/3 9:45 AM ET: Jan F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 2/3 10:00 AM ET: Jan ISM Manufacturing PMI Tame
  • 2/4 10:00 AM ET: Dec JOLTS Job Openings Tame
  • 2/4 10:00 AM ET: Dec F Durable Goods Orders Tame
  • 2/5 8:30 AM ET: Dec Trade Balance Tame
  • 2/5 9:45 AM ET: Jan F S&P Global Services PMI Tame
  • 2/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan ISM Services PMI Tame
  • 2/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Non-Farm Productivity Tame
  • 2/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Unit Labor Costs Tame
  • 2/7 8:30 AM ET: Jan Non-Farm Payrolls Tame
  • 2/7 9:00 AM ET: Dec F Manheim Used Vehicle index Tame
  • 2/7 10:00 AM ET: Feb P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation Hot
  • 2/10 11:00 AM ET: Jan NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp Tame
  • 2/11 6:00 AM ET: Jan Small Business Optimism Survey Tame
  • 2/12 8:30 AM ET: Jan CPI Hot
  • 2/13 8:30 AM ET: Jan PPI Hot
  • 2/14 8:30 AM ET: Jan Retail Sales Data
  • 2/18 8:30 AM ET: Feb Empire Manufacturing Survey
  • 2/18 10:00 AM ET: Feb NAHB Housing Market Index
  • 2/18 4:00 PM ET: Dec Net TIC Flows
  • 2/19 9:00 AM ET: Jan M Manheim Used Vehicle index
  • 2/19 2:00 PM ET: Jan FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • 2/20 8:30 AM ET: Feb Philly Fed Business Outlook
  • 2/21 9:45 AM ET: Feb P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • 2/21 9:45 AM ET: Feb P S&P Global Services PMI
  • 2/21 10:00 AM ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
  • 2/21 10:00 AM ET: Jan Existing Home Sales
  • 2/24 8:30 AM ET: Jan Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
  • 2/24 10:30 AM ET: Feb Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
  • 2/25 9:00 AM ET: Dec S&P CoreLogic CS home price
  • 2/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb Conference Board Consumer Confidence
  • 2/26 10:00 AM ET: Jan New Home Sales
  • 2/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q S GDP
  • 2/27 10:00 AM ET: Jan P Durable Goods Orders
  • 2/28 8:30 AM ET: Jan PCE Deflator

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg

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