Wed, February 19, 2025 | 8:03PM ET

Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns "never short a dull market

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Client surveys show 53% cite tariffs/deportation as the biggest risk... but low VIX warns never short a dull market

Today, we re-introduced our “Super Grannies” (most timely) and “Sleeper Grannies” large-cap stock ideas. In client polls conducted during our webinars:

46% cited tariffs as their top concern.
7% cited deportation, up from 41% total (tariffs + deportation) in the prior month.

are investors too cautious? We turn to the old adage “never short a dull market”.
Consider:

The VIX has seen a few intra-day spikes in recent sessions but is settling back toward the 15 level—historically associated with calmer markets.
Over the past 10 days, the S&P 500 has seen multiple intra-day pullbacks, only to find buyers stepping in. On 7 of the past 9 trading days, investors “bought the dip.”
This reaffirms the market’s resilience despite policy-related jitters.

Client polls from today’s webinar also showed 63% of investors selected FANG as their favorite idea for 2025 (up from 56% the prior month). This comes as only 3 of the mag 7 are up on a YTD basis. But consider:

Roughly 48% of stocks are outperforming the broader index
a marked improvement compared to the more narrow leadership of the past two years

Lastly, a key macro development today:

The February Manheim mid-month update registered a -1.1% MoM decline, counter to prior expectations that used car prices might stabilize or even firm.
Historically, wholesale used car prices (as tracked by Manheim) tend to lead retail prices by roughly two months.
Meaning, this drop could signal downward pressure on the used-vehicles component of CPI going forward.

Bottom Line: Stay on Target

The top sector ideas remain:
Bitcoin
Small-caps
Financials
Industrials
Technology

Key incoming data February:

~~2/3 9:45 AM ET: Jan F S&P Global Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~2/3 10:00 AM ET: Jan ISM Manufacturing PMI~~ Tame
~~2/4 10:00 AM ET: Dec JOLTS Job Openings~~ Tame
~~2/4 10:00 AM ET: Dec F Durable Goods Orders~~ Tame
~~2/5 8:30 AM ET: Dec Trade Balance~~ Tame
~~2/5 9:45 AM ET: Jan F S&P Global Services PMI~~ Tame
~~2/5 10:00 AM ET: Jan ISM Services PMI~~ Tame
~~2/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Non-Farm Productivity~~ Tame
~~2/6 8:30 AM ET: 4Q P Unit Labor Costs~~ Tame
~~2/7 8:30 AM ET: Jan Non-Farm Payrolls~~ Tame
~~2/7 9:00 AM ET: Dec F Manheim Used Vehicle index~~ Tame
~~2/7 10:00 AM ET: Feb P U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation~~ Hot
~~2/10 11:00 AM ET: Jan NY Fed 1yr Inf Exp~~ Tame
~~2/11 6:00 AM ET: Jan Small Business Optimism Survey~~ Tame
~~2/12 8:30 AM ET: Jan CPI~~ Hot
~~2/13 8:30 AM ET: Jan PPI~~ Hot
2/14 8:30 AM ET: Jan Retail Sales Data
2/18 8:30 AM ET: Feb Empire Manufacturing Survey
2/18 10:00 AM ET: Feb NAHB Housing Market Index
2/18 4:00 PM ET: Dec Net TIC Flows
2/19 9:00 AM ET: Jan M Manheim Used Vehicle index
2/19 2:00 PM ET: Jan FOMC Meeting Minutes
2/20 8:30 AM ET: Feb Philly Fed Business Outlook
2/21 9:45 AM ET: Feb P S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
2/21 9:45 AM ET: Feb P S&P Global Services PMI
2/21 10:00 AM ET: Feb F U. Mich. Sentiment and Inflation Expectation
2/21 10:00 AM ET: Jan Existing Home Sales
2/24 8:30 AM ET: Jan Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index
2/24 10:30 AM ET: Feb Dallas Fed Manuf. Activity Survey
2/25 9:00 AM ET: Dec S&P CoreLogic CS home price
2/25 10:00 AM ET: Feb Conference Board Consumer Confidence
2/26 10:00 AM ET: Jan New Home Sales
2/27 8:30 AM ET: 4Q S GDP
2/27 10:00 AM ET: Jan P Durable Goods Orders
2/28 8:30 AM ET: Jan PCE Deflator

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2025:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2024:

Economic Data Performance Tracker 2023:

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