Click HERE to access the FSInsight COVID-19 Daily Chartbook.
We are shifting to a 4-day a week publication schedule:
- Monday
- Tuesday
- Wednesday
- SKIP THURSDAY
- Friday
STRATEGY: Keep an eye on the VIX, a “less than 20” brings inflows from systematic and quants
As we finish this second week in February, the developments in COVID-19 have been largely positive. Notably, yesterday, the White House signed the purchase agreement to secure an additional 200 million doses of COVID-19, bringing the total to 600 million by July (enough for 300 million Americans). And the organic case trends have been good, despite the surge in transmissible mutations:
– Daily cases 95,956 vs 115,115 7D ago, down -19,159
– 7D positivity rate 7.1% vs 8.5% 7D ago
– Hospitalized patients 88,688 -16% vs 7D ago
– Daily deaths 2,751, down -7% vs 7D ago
– Vaccines dosed 1.5 million this week vs 1.2 million last week
– 3.2% of Americans 2-doses, 10% 1-dose
Overall, it seems like the US is on track for sub-50,000 cases by the end of the month. And potentially 25,000 daily case rate by mid-March. And if the vaccinations keep tracking, both in the dosing and in the effectiveness, the pace of improvement could be faster. But keep in mind, the base case is that late March/April is another surge, as forecasted by IHME. This would be a 4th wave.
US secures additional 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses, taking the total to 600 million…
The White House announced it has signed deals to secure an additional 200 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, 100 million each of Pfizer and Moderna. The supply is expected to be delivered by July 2021.
– while the pace of vaccine distribution and dosing is painfully slow
– by mid-2021, or within 4 months, the availability should drastically increase
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/white-house-200-million-more-covid-vaccine-doses-.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.tinyspeck.chatlyio.share
The total vaccine purchases, from two suppliers, is now 600 million doses. There remains potential additional supply from JNJ (1-dose required) and Astra Zeneca/Oxford. From a vaccine perspective, the picture will improve sharply in the next few months.
VIX has been range-bound but bias is to the downside as “contagion” risks fade…
As our clients are aware, we have been carefully watching the VIX and we view a decisive move below 20 as significant. A fall below 20 takes this volatility index to pre-2020 levels and a drop in the VIX would be a risk-on signal. Moreover, systematic and quantitative strategies would likely increase employed leverage, which is more money flowing into equities.
– VIX has drifted lower this week, even as equities have been volatile
– we view this as a positive divergence — VIX lower is suggesting market fears are receding.
But a more important development would be a VIX falling below 20. At the moment, the VIX has been skidding along low-20s. And while there is no assurance that it will decline, a move below 20 is our base case for 2021.
Source: Bloomberg
STRATEGY: Updating Epicenter Trifecta List –> +21 new ideas (-10 deletions) or +11 net adds
The case for being Cyclically-tilted is strengthening:
– Vaccine rollout set to accelerate
– US cases collapsing
– US economy set to re-open
– US corporates reset cost structures = strong operating leverage
– US credit markets strong = cost of capital falling
We are re-balancing our “Trifecta” epicenter stock list. These are the stocks which were hit the hardest by the pandemic and have the greatest operating leverage to a re-opening. And we like the earnings upside in these stocks, because of the massive cost reset. The stocks are based on positive views coming from the trifecta of: (i) Quant (tireless Ken), (ii) Global Portfolio Strategy (Brian Rauscher, aka Rocky) and (iii) Technicals.
The Epicenter Trifecta list is updated – 10 stock ideas are removed, and 21 stock ideas are added to the list… Now 121 stocks in the Trifecta list…
21 Additions:
Discretionary: RL, KSS
Financials: PACW, GS
Industrials: EAF, TTC, ITT, ALK, LSTR, MAN
Energy: XOM, BKR, HAL, COP, FANG, HES, MRO, MUR
Materials: IP
Real Estate: BXP, WRI
10 Deletions:
Discretionary: BBY, CRI, GPC, HAS, HOG, PHM
Financials: AGNC
Industrials: MMM
Real Estate: CPT, STOR
Below is the complete list of 121 Epicenter Trifecta list (*)…
Consumer Discretionary:
AN, GM, F, GRMN, LEG, TPX, TOL, NWL, MAT, PII, RL, MGM, HLT, MAR, NCLH, RCL, WH, WYND, SIX, DRI, SBUX, FL, GPS, KSS, LB, VFC
Financials:
FITB, WTFC, ASB, BOH, FHN, FNB, PB, PBCT, RF, STL, TFC, WBS, PNFP, PACW, SBNY, NYCB, MTG, EVR, GS, IBKR, VIRT, BK, STT, SYF, BHF
Industrials:
AGCO, OC, ACM, WAB, EMR, GNRC, NVT, CSL, GE, IEX, PNR, CFX, DOV, MIDD, SNA, XYL, FLS, EAF, TTC, ITT, ALK, DAL, JBLU, LUV, MIC, KEX, UNP, JBHT, R, UBER, UHAL, LSTR, MAN
Energy:
XOM, HP, BKR, HAL, NOV, SLB, COP, EOG, FANG, HES, MRO, MUR, PXD, XEC, HFC, MPC, PSX
Basic Materials:
LYB, EXP, MLM, CF, MOS, ESI, NEU, NUE, RS, SON, IP
Real Estate:
BXP, HIW, UDR, KIM, NNN, WRI, VNO, JBGS, RYN
Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg
(*) Please note that the stocks rated OW on this list meet the requirements of our investment theme as of the publication date. We do not monitor this list day by day. A stock taken off this list means it no longer meets our investment criteria, but not necessarily that it is neutral rated or should be sold. Please consult your financial advisor to discuss your risk tolerance and other factors that characterize your unique investment profile.
ADDENDUM: We are attaching the stock lists for our 3 portfolios:
We get several requests to give the updated list for our stock portfolios. We are including the links here:
– Granny Shots –> core stocks, based on 6 thematic/tactical portfolios
– Trifecta epicenter –> based on the convergence of Quant (tireless Ken), Rauscher (Global strategy), Sluymer (Technicals)
– Violence in USA –> companies that are involved in some aspect of home or personal security. We are not “recommending” these stocks, but rather, bringing these stocks to your attention.
Granny Shots:
Full stock list here –> Click here
Tickers: AAPL, CSCO, INTC, MXIM, NVDA, EBAY, KLAC, GRMN, GOOG, MNST, MSFT, AMZN, QCOM, TSLA, PYPL, AXP, BF/B, PM, XLNX, TGT, PG, XOM, VLO, GL, RF, ATVI, BBY, GE, AMAT, LRCX, MU, HPQ
Trifecta Epicenter (*):
Full stock list here –> Click here
Tickers: AN, GM, F, GRMN, LEG, TPX, TOL, NWL, MAT, PII, RL, MGM, HLT, MAR, NCLH, RCL, WH, WYND, SIX, DRI, SBUX, FL, GPS, KSS, LB, VFC, FITB, WTFC, ASB, BOH, FHN, FNB, PB, PBCT, RF, STL, TFC, WBS, PNFP, PACW, SBNY, NYCB, MTG, EVR, GS, IBKR, VIRT, BK, STT, SYF, BHF, AGCO, OC, ACM, WAB, EMR, GNRC, NVT, CSL, GE, IEX, PNR, CFX, DOV, MIDD, SNA, XYL, FLS, EAF, TTC, ITT, ALK, DAL, JBLU, LUV, MIC, KEX, UNP, JBHT, R, UBER, UHAL, LSTR, MAN, XOM, HP, BKR, HAL, NOV, SLB, COP, EOG, FANG, HES, MRO, MUR, PXD, XEC, HFC, MPC, PSX, LYB, EXP, MLM, CF, MOS, ESI, NEU, NUE, RS, SON, IP, BXP, HIW, UDR, KIM, NNN, WRI, VNO, JBGS, RYN
Violence in USA:
Full stock list here –> Click here
(*) Please note that the stocks rated OW on this list meet the requirements of our investment theme as of the publication date. We do not monitor this list day by day. A stock taken off this list means it no longer meets our investment criteria, but not necessarily that it is neutral rated or should be sold. Please consult your financial advisor to discuss your risk tolerance and other factors that characterize your unique investment profile.
POINT 1: Daily COVID-19 cases 95,956, -19,159 vs 7D ago… tracking sub-50,000 two weeks
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Current Trends — COVID-19 cases:
– Daily cases 95,956 vs 115,115 7D ago, down -19,159
– 7D positivity rate 7.1% vs 8.5% 7D ago
– Hospitalized patients 88,688 -16% vs 7D ago
– Daily deaths 2,751, down -7% vs 7D ago
_____________________________
The latest COVID-19 daily cases came in at 95,956, down -19,159 vs 7D ago.
– US cases fell below 100,000 this week and set to fall further
– COVID-19 cases have declined (vs 7D ago) for 31 consecutive days
Source: COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat
Daily cases are falling by ~25,000 vs 7D ago (7D delta, see below)… Wow
The 7D delta has turned negative for the past 31 days consecutively. This is impressive and the rate of change is accelerating to the downside.
– this is contributing to the sense that this receding of cases is a much faster retreat than seen in the past few months
Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat
US hospitalization still rolling over … and even US deaths seem to be rolling over…
Below we show the aggregate patients who are currently hospitalized due to COVID. It certainly seems to be rolling over = good sign.
Source: COVID Tracking Project and Fundstrat
Source: COVID Tracking Project and Fundstrat
Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat
Source: COVID-19 Tracking and Fundstrat
POINT 2: VACCINE: Only 3.2% of US 2-doses of the vaccine. ~10% 1-dose
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Current Trends — Vaccinations:
Vaccinations ramping steadily
– avg 1.5 million this week vs 1.2 million last week
– 3.2% have 2-doses, ~10% 1-dose
_____________________________
After plunging below 1 million doses administered per day on Tuesday, the daily vaccinations managed to climb back to ~1.5 million yesterday and today. A total of 1,522,888 doses were administered on Thursday, up from 1,274,323 a week ago. The pace overall is steadily rising, as evidenced by the 7D moving average (see blue line).
Source: CDC, COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat
About 40% of the US has seen 1-dose penetration >10%… still not wide geography
To better illustrate the actual footprint of the US vaccination effort, we have a time series showing the percent of the US with 2-doses covering at least 5% of its residents, displayed as the orange line on the chart. This figure is only 1% (orange line). That means, while 3.2% of the US overall has received 2 doses, this figure is so dispersed, that only 1% of US states has US citizens with >5%.
– 40% of the US has seen vaccine penetration >10%. Not a lot of geography.
-Since 2-doses are considered a “full dose” very little geography has been 2-dose penetration
– the takeaway is the vaccination efforts are unlikely to be having much of an effect on case figures, currently
Source: CDC, COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat
Vaccination frontier update –> only ND + SD > 60% combined penetration (vaccines + infections)
Below we sorted the states by the combined penetration (vaccinations + infections). As we commented in the past, the key figure is the combined value >60%, which is presumably near herd immunity. That is, the combined value of infections + vaccinations as % population > 60%.
– Currently, only ND + SD are at this level
– many states are approaching this such as UT, RI, AZ, TN, OK at >50%
– So slowly, the US is getting to that threshold of presumable herd immunity
Source: CDC, COVID Tracking Project and Fundstrat
This is the state by state data below, showing information for states with one dose and for those with two doses.
Source: CDC, COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat
The ratio of vaccinations/ daily confirmed cases is generally trending higher (red line is 7D moving avg) and this is the most encouraging statistic.
– the 7D moving average is about ~15X for the past few days
– this means 15 vaccines dosed for every 1 confirmed case
This figure is rising nicely and likely surges in the coming weeks
Source: CDC, COVID-19 Tracking Project and Fundstrat
In total, about 33 million Americans have received at least 1 dose of a vaccine. This is a good pace and as we noted previously, implies 30% of the population by April.
Source: CDC and Fundstrat
POINT 3: New cross-sectional Asia study shows strong relationship Vitamin D and COVID-19 spread + mortality
Over the past year, we have come across multiple studies that have shown Vitamin D, and its associated boost to the immune system, might be helpful in mitigating COVID-19, both via reducing the risk of spread and also via reducing the severity of the disease. A recent study by scientists and researchers in India (All India Institute of Medical Sciences) is the latest study.
This one is a cross-sectional study by looking at 37 nations and collecting data on mean vitamin D levels. I didn’t find this to be the most comprehensive, but still, the data still points to the same conclusions:
– The Vitamin D levels found to have a statistically significant association with the number of cases/million.
– Significant association between Vitamin D Levels and COVID-19 cases per million (r=-.394, p value = 0.016)
– Weak association found between the number of death/million and vitamin levels (r=-0.280, p value= 0.093) So it seems like the risk of infection from COVID-19 is more influenced by Vitamin D. Less so for risk of mortality.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7854023/
The exhibit in this report is the most interesting. It shows the levels of Vitamin D and the cases per million. Again, this is just another study but it is another study among dozens of others that have shown Vitamin D sufficiency is a good thing.
– so please keep taking Vitamin D.
Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7854023/
