JOLTS misses by -2.8 std dev as job market cools sharply = "bad news is good news." Rally at close in each of last 3 days is sign of institutional accumulation.

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VIDEO: Stocks are inching higher in this first week of June.  Notably, buying has taken place at the end of the day, which is historically a sign of institutional accumulation

Please click below to view our Macro Minute (duration: 4:23).

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What is notable in each of the last 3 trading sessions is the fact stocks rally into the close. There is an old trader's adage "amateurs open the market, professionals close the market" and thus, to us, the pattern in each of the last 3 days is a sign institutions are re-risking:

Consider the sharp moves higher at the end of day in each of the last 3 days:- 5/31 +2% +72 points- 6/3 +1% +56 points- 6/4 +1% +53 points To me, this is a sign of institutional accumulation, as ICI money market data shows institutions were de-risking in May (when S&P 500 rose +5%). And additionally, we sense that European macro investors are less constructive on US equities, thus, stocks seem to drift higher post-European close (~11am ET). Is this rise in stocks warranted? We believe the probabilities favor stocks rising in June and since 1927, when 1Q is up and April is down, June has been up 11 of 11 times with a median gain of 3.9%. This implies 5,500 fo...
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