As the election nears, polling continues to show that the race is neck and neck. Over the last few days several polls were released. NBC, that had Harris up by 5 points a month ago, now has the race tied: 48% to 48%. ABC’s poll had Harris up 50% to 48% but last month the Vice President was up by 5%. Polls are showing the former President increasing his share of the vote among Black and Hispanic voters.
However, two important points to keep in mind. First, as I have written before, polling is not as accurate as in the past. Second, national polls have little value as the US elects its President with 50 different races that form the Electoral College. With that understood it seems clear that the race is very close. At this point as both campaigns prepare for the final push, part of that push will not be a direct debate as it appears that the candidates will not have a second face-to-face event.
Congress
Election Day will also see all 435 seats in the House up and 34 of the 100 Senate seats to be decided.
The current line up in the Senate is 51D to 49R, but Republicans are assured of picking up the WV seat where Democrat Joe Manchin is retiring making the Election Day margin 50/50.
Of the 34 seats that are up, 23 are currently held by Democratic Senators and only 11 held by Republicans. In addition to the expected seat flip in WV, polling shows Democratic candidates vulnerable in seven states: PA, OH, MI, MT, WS, NV and AZ. On the other hand, Republicans seats only appear to have any issue at all in two states: FL and TX. Florida Senator Rick Scott and Texas Senator Ted Cruz are polling closer to their Democratic opponents than their colleagues in other states, but both have small leads. Additionally, Donald Trump is likely to run well in both states and may have critical coattails to bring Scott and Cruz over the finish line.
The House with 435 separate races is tougher to get a clear picture, but Republicans enter the election with only a four-seat majority. Court ordered redistricting has created two new minority/majority seats in the South, and several surprise wins in 2022 by Republicans in Democratic states such as California and New York give Democrats hope of regaining control of the House.
The fact of the matter is that House candidates seldom use their limited resources on polling, and in some urban areas where several districts exist in a small geographical area it is almost impossible to do effective polling. However, one can assume that with close races for President and Senate, House races remain very competitive.
FOMC minutes
Last week the Federal Reserve released the minutes from their rate setting meeting that occurred on September 17/18. The minutes that take three weeks to prepare showed that there was substantial support for a cut of only 25bps as the members discussed the economic situation. In the end Chair Powell was able to persuade all but one participant to support a 50bps cut. However, with recent data showing mixed results it may give more ammunition to those who want a smaller cut when the Committee meets again next month.
The Fed is scheduled to have another rate setting meeting on November 5/6 with the announcement and Chair press conference on the 6th, the day after Election Day. For those who have not read the minutes released last week below is a link to the Fed’s website.
Click HERE to read the Fed Minutes.
Global Risks
Markets continue to pay close attention to global risks with the war in Gaza and Lebanon continuing, and the overhang of an expectation that Israel will make a retaliatory attack on Iran.
In the closing days of the campaign, candidates at all levels want to get their message out to voters, but news ranging from the conflict in the Middle East to devastating hurricanes can create stories that compete with the candidates delivering their messages.
