While the world watches the growing dangers in the Middle East, the US political world is focused on the deadlock among House Republicans as they search for a new Speaker.
Last week the House Republicans met and by a close vote of 113 to 99 selected Louisiana Representative Steve Scalise to be their candidate for Speaker. However, Scalise needed 217 votes to claim the Speaker’s gavel and after several days of trying to line up the needed votes he called it quits and gave up his quest.
In the initial vote Ohio Representative Jim Jordan came in second and the caucus turned to him as a possible Speaker candidate. On Thursday when the vote was to occur the day started with no announced opponent to Jordan, but hours before the vote Georgia Representative Austin Scott announced his candidacy while conceding he didn’t really want to be Speaker. This reluctant candidate got 88 votes, leaving Jordan with 124 votes, far short of the 217 he needs to be elected Speaker.
With Representative Jordan as the favored candidate the Republicans then took another vote with the question being who would vote for Jordan with no opponent. The vote, like the other caucus votes, was by secret ballot and the tally was 152 to 55. The result showed Jordan still short 65 votes of the 217 needed to win on the House floor.
The new week begins with no clear strategy for the badly divided Republicans to agree on a Speaker.
Over the weekend Jordan and his supporters worked overtime to try to line up the 217 votes needed for victory; but all reports appear to indicate that there are a group of at least 20 Republican Members who are in a Never Jordan group.
What next?
Unlike Rep. Scalise who agreed not to take the vote to the House floor without the needed 217 votes, Jordan and his supporters have indicated that they will put Jordan’s name before the House on Tuesday.
Why would the vote change?
Unlike the House Republican caucus votes which are secret, a vote on the House floor for Speaker will be out in the open and every Republican will have to go on record voting for or against Jordan. The belief of some is that the pressure of the public vote will push the more moderate Members towards Jordan as a vote against Jordan may lead to a tough primary challenge next year when the entire House is up for re-election.
As Chair of the House Judiciary Committee Jordan has been an outspoken supporter of former President Trump and has led the impeachment effort against President Biden. In the Republican House ranks are 18 Members who represent districts that were carried by President Biden in 2020. Additionally, there are Members who are friends of Representative Scalise who believe Jordan undermined his efforts to secure 217 votes. And there are a group of Republican Members who remain close to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy who put some blame on Jordan for the close vote against the former Speaker.
Could there be a bipartisan Speaker?
Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has told reporters that there has been some very preliminary discussion with a handful of Republicans; but from my experience as a senior House aide. I don’t take this discussion seriously. While nothing is Zero in politics; the chances of a bipartisan vote for Speaker seems very close to Zero. If a group of House Republicans wanted to get the House moving again with a bipartisan vote for a Speaker, in my view they would need to switch parties as they would become persona non gratis as Republicans.
If Jordan fails, then who?
There is no obvious candidate but two who have been mentioned are Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry and long-time Representative and Chair of the Rules Committee Tom Cole.
Representative McHenry is well respected and Chairs the House Financial Services Committee. He genuinely enjoys legislating and last year passed over the opportunity to enter leadership to serve as Chair of Financial Services. He has been a vocal supporter of Rep. Jordan and has the confidence of many of conservatives.
Rep. Tom Cole has represented Oklahoma in the House since 2003 and Chairs the House Rules Committee. He is viewed like McHenry as a respected legislator.
November 17 budget deadline
Both Coles and McHenry voted for the legislation that kept the government open and extended the budget deadline until November 17. Jordan opposed the budget legislation. Among those who oppose Jordan are some who believe that closing the government as the holiday season begins is a losing issue for Republicans. These Members want to support someone they trust to work with the White House and Democratic Senate to keep the government funded. This view has been enhanced as the world becomes a more dangerous place with the war between Israel and Hamas.
Bottom line – more questions than answers but our Fundstrat Insights will keep Fundsrat subscribers informed as the Speaker’s race moves forward this week.
SEC and Bitcoin ETFs
Late Friday the SEC officially declined to appeal the Grayscale ruling that paves the way for a spot Bitcoin ETF. This potentially opens the door for other crypto ETFs and the Fundstrat team will be following these positive developments in the coming days.
