Upticks – Newton’s Law

Upticks Additions

• First Solar Inc. (FSLR -1.34%  – $184.21)  – Added in 7/2 Technical Strategy
• Celestica (CLS 6.12% - $165.20)
• Trane Technologies (TT 0.80%  – $470.37)
• Jacobs Solutions (J 1.17% - $142.38)
• Wal-mart (WMT -0.15% - $97.26) 
• Kroger (KR 0.94% - $71.97) 

Upticks Deletions

• Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -1.16%  – $493.73)

UPTICKS Total Return vs. SPY, Year to Date

UPTICKS Return vs. S&P 500, Since Inception

Upticks One Month Contribution to Performance Relative to SPY (June 24 to July 24)

Upticks Additions Commentary

Celestica (CLS 6.12% - $165.20)  – Breakout of February highs bodes well for follow-through

Support $153, $144, Resistance $200, $225

• CLS 6.12%  remains extraordinarily strong after having more than doubled in price off its April lows
• The breakout above February 2025 has resulted in CLS 6.12%  beginning to accelerate, while counter-trend exhaustion indicators remain quite premature in signaling any kind of peak
• This week’s 7/23 breakout happened on the highest volume of the month and bodes well for additional follow-through to $200 with intermediate-term targets near $225.

Trane Technologies (TT 0.80%  – $470.37)  – Acceleration above November 2024 peaks should allow for $485 with intermediate-term resistance at $600

Support- $435, $416, Resistance- $485, $600

• TT 0.80%  has begun to show very strong signs of upside follow-through following its breakout of late 2024 peaks.
• This stock has benefited given the recent upturn in many Homebuilding stocks, and, as an Industrial Equipment manufacturer, this looks proper to favor despite it having already rallied by more than 10% over its pivot area resistance which gave way to the breakout in May.
• Rallies up to $485 look likely initially while intermediate-term target lie near $600.
• Despite the start of negative momentum divergence on monthly charts while momentum is overbought, this still looks to have upside potential structurally while counter-trend exhaustion remains premature.

Jacobs Solutions (J 1.17% - $142.38)  – Acceleration this week bodes well for a rally back to new all-time highs

Support- $135, $130, Resistance- $180, $214

• Jacobs Solutions (J 1.17% ) has begun to show real acceleration off its intermediate-term uptrend line which has helped momentum improve meaningfully.
• Following several times over the last decade where J 1.17%  got stretched and pulled back to test its uptrend, the stock managed to successfully rebound back to new all-time highs.
• I suspect another rally back to new all-time highs is likely and expect a push to test this week’s highs, which when exceeded, should give way to a push up to $180.
• Momentum is not yet overbought on weekly charts, while MACD (not shown) is diverging sharply in positive territory following its bullish crossover this past May.
• Support to buy dips lies near $136, then $130, but looks unlikely to be tested until J 1.17%  pushes back to challenge and likely exceed last November peaks at $149.

Walmart (WMT -0.15% - $97.26)  – Five-month triangle pattern is likely resolved by upside breakout

Support- $93, $90, Resistance- $99, $105

• WMT -0.15%  looks appealing given the stock reaching the apex of its triangle pattern from early 2025 which should be resolved by an upside breakout.
• The ability of WMT -0.15%  to have held near the highs of its recent range is seen as quite positive and should lead this back to highs into August.
• Weekly close above $99 should lead to a test and eventual breakout back to new all-time highs.
• WMT -0.15%  is the third best performer of all 39 stocks within the Consumer Staples sector over the last 12 months, with a return of +38.79%.
• Given the sudden uptick in performance by the Consumer Staples sector, I expect that WMT -0.15%  should break back out to new highs and likely leads performance of this sector over the next 12 months.

Kroger (KR 0.94% - $71.97)   – Five-month triangle pattern is likely resolved by upside breakout

Support- $69, $66, Resistance- $74, $80

• KR 0.94%  looks poised to break out of its current consolidation following a sharp run-up to test resistance of its consolidation over the last few months. 
• Kroger has been one of the best performers of all 39 stocks within Consumer Staples over the last 6-month and 12-month periods, returning 22.62% and 35% respectively.
• The acceleration following KR 0.94%  ’s breakout above 2022 highs has resulted in acceleration higher over the last year, and its recent consolidation paves the way for another upside breakout this Fall.
• Movement above $74 should lead KR 0.94%  up to $80 which should be strong resistance over the next few months.
• Given the recent improvement in Consumer Staples heading into a possibly difficult seasonal period, owning a technical standout within Consumer Staples looks appealing.

Upticks Deletions Commentary

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG -1.16%  – $493.73)  – Bearish breakdown warrants removal from UPTICKS

Support- $425, $398; Resistance- $538, $616

• Breakdown from the lengthy uptrend on heavier volume proved to be a warning sign for ISRG -1.16%  earlier this year.  Following an unsuccessful rebound attempt (which failed to regain its prior uptrend) ISRG -1.16%  has begun to turn back lower.
• This week’s break of June 2025 lows near $503 looks negative technically and should lead to a coming test of $425 lows.
• The Healthcare sector continues to show underperformance vs. ^SPX on a 1-month, 3-month and 6-month basis.

Technical Writeups of Interesting Pattern Developments of Existing UPTICKS names

Antero Resources  (AR-$32.60)   – Recent weakness now nearing support  

Support- $33, $30; Resistance- $38, $44

• AR 0.06%  suffered a false breakout into mid-June which resulted in this making an abrupt about-face and backtracking for the last four weeks lower.
• At current levels, AR 0.06%  is testing an intermediate-term uptrend from last Summer’s lows
• Additional intermediate-term uptrend from late 2023 intersects near $30 right near April 2025 lows, just below current levels
• While volume proved to be well above-average on recent weakness, it looks right to hold AR 0.06%  given the intermediate-term structure, looking to sell on gains if this can’t get back to June highs in the months ahead.