Upticks – Newton’s Law

Upticks Additions

• S&P Global (SPGI -0.48% - $539.69)
• Accenture (ACN -0.39% - $388.00)
• Upstart Holdings (UPST -2.69% - $82.42)
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI 12.75% - $47.91)
• Alibaba (BABA 4.12% - $124.73)
• Deere & Co. (DE 3.00% - $480.22)

Upticks Deletions

• Uber Technologies Inc (UBER -1.23% - $79.41) – Removed on 12/6
• NRG Energy (NRG 1.27% - $107.60) – Removed on 12/6
• Kimco Realty (KIM -2.85% - $21.80)
• Cintas (CTAS -0.86% - $204.22)

UPTICKS Total Return vs. SPY, Year to Date

UPTICKS Return vs. S&P 500, Since Inception

Upticks One Month Contribution to Performance (January 14 to February 14)

Upticks Additions Commentary

S&P Global (SPGI – $539.69) – Base breakout should lead SPGI meaningfully higher

• Push back to new highs helps to officially confirm the base breakout which began back in late 2021

• Initial breakout back to new highs in late 2024 required consolidation, but this looks complete as of this past week

• Triangle pattern that began last September has been resolved with this week’s move back over $528

• Consolidation over last five months has helped to relieve overbought conditions and makes this attractive following its breakout back to new highs

• Upside targeted resistance lies at 595-600, then $669

Upstart Holdings (UPST – $82.42) – Convincing push off the lows has helped momentum start to surge

• Breakout back to test last Fall’s highs on heavy volume is attractive toward expecting a continued lift to targets over $100 following this past week’s consolidation

• UPST’s rally to multi-year highs late last year was initially encouraging and now the stock is beginning a renewed effort which began early this past week

• Minor “backing and filling” this week creates an attractive risk/reward scenario following the high volume breakout to multi-year highs.

• Rally up to $105 is thought possible initially and then a larger push up to $161 looks possible on an intermediate-term basis

Accenture (ACN – $388.00) – Base breakout makes ACN very attractive technically for a coming push back to new all-time highs

• Breakout to the highest weekly close since early 2022 makes this attractive for a coming challenge and move over all-time highs near $417.

• ACN breakout above the three-year triangle pattern bodes well for additional gains back to new all-time highs

• Structurally the act of having exceeded both March and October 2024 highs has successfully exceeded a three-year Cup and Handle pattern formed in early 2022

• Initial resistance zone lies at $417-$422 and over would lead up to $477 and then $511. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI – $47.91) – Rally back over $60 expected after a confirmed bottoming in SMCI last November

• Super Micro Computer has officially completed a five-wave decline last November following a vicious eight-month decline which resulted in an 80% decline

• The initial bounce off those lows into year-end has been consolidated, and SMCI should be starting a new rise which exceeds December highs en-route to a push up above $60

• Momentum has been slowly but surely turning back to positive on weekly charts as SMCI could be set to make the highest weekly close since last Fall 2024

• An upcoming test and move over $48 looks to be underway, and initial targets over $48 lie near $58.

• Additional resistance targets are found at $70 which approximate the 50% retracement level of SMCI’s 2024 decline.

Alibaba (BABA – $124.73) – Impressive base breakout makes BABA technically attractive for an intermediate-term advance

• BABA looks technically attractive again following its first weekly breakout back to new multi-year highs

• Its weekly pattern has successfully broken out of a reverse Head and Shoulders pattern that started back in 2022

• Intermediate-term gains are likely up to 157 followed by $186 as BABA begins an advance after nearly two years of decline was followed by a two-year range-bound pattern.

• Decline in the US Dollar should help China Equities bounce further in the months ahead, despite being near-term overbought.

• Minor consolidation that follows this recent breakout likely should provide even more actionable opportunity and strong support should materialize between $103-$108 before BABA begins an intermediate-term rally.

Deere & Co. (DE- $480.22) – Multi-year breakout bodes well for additional intermediate-term gains

• 3.5 year base from May 2021 was finally resolved higher last November, 2024 in a multi-year breakout

• Consolidation into early January 2025 helped to relieve overbought conditions before DE began to turn back higher.

• Resistance lies initially near $580, then a rally to $690-$700 is possible

Additional Comments

Tesla (TSLA-$355.84) – Intermediate-term attractive, but TSLA has some near-term work to do, technically

• TSLA near-term downtrend doesn’t take away from its intermediate-term appeal;  However, near-term TSLA requires some stabilization after recent short-term pullback

• Break of $373 caused weekly momentum to roll over to negative (Per MACD) and a move to $314 still can’t be ruled out.

• Short-term cycles show TSLA to likely bottom in February but to face potential additional weakness in May before larger low is in place

• TSLA is expected to eventually push back to new all-time highs in 2025;  However, the next three months could still prove to be choppy given the negative crossover in MACD

• Rallies back above $373 would serve to help momentum and structure improve, and should help to add conviction on TSLA’s bounce

Deckers Outdoor (DECK- $155.07) –  Steep slide nearing short-term support

• DECK’s recent steep slide has neared support where this is expected to stabilize at Ichimoku cloud support

• The area near current levels represents a 50% retracement of DECK’s entire rally from 2023 lows into early 2025

• While the intermediate-term momentum and structure has deteriorated, it’s likely that DECK stabilizes and begins a sharp bounce in the months ahead

• The inability of DECK to recover 190 would be problematic in 2H 2025 and might cause DECK to be less timely

• DECK is being held in UPTICKS at this time with support at $150, then $134.   New Resistance targets are 169 initially then $185-$190 which is a zone of resistance on a larger rally.