Fri, February 14, 2025 | 6:55PM ET

Upticks - February 2025

Name: FS Insight
Price range: $$$

Mark L. Newton, CMT ^AC

Head of Technical Strategy

Upticks – Newton’s Law

Upticks - February 2025 — Source: Fundstrat, Bloomberg

Upticks Additions

S&P Global (SPGI- $539.69)
Accenture (ACN- $388.00)
Upstart Holdings (UPST- $82.42)
Super Micro Computer (SMCI- $47.91)
Alibaba (BABA- $124.73)
Deere & Co. (DE- $480.22)

Upticks Deletions

Uber Technologies Inc (UBER- $79.41) – Removed on 12/6
NRG Energy (NRG- $107.60) – Removed on 12/6
Kimco Realty (KIM- $21.80)
Cintas (CTAS- $204.22)

UPTICKS Total Return vs. SPY, Year to Date

UPTICKS Return vs. S&P 500, Since Inception

Upticks One Month Contribution to Performance (January 14 to February 14)

Upticks Additions Commentary

S&P Global (SPGI – $539.69) – Base breakout should lead SPGI meaningfully higher

Push back to new highs helps to officially confirm the base breakout which began back in late 2021

Initial breakout back to new highs in late 2024 required consolidation, but this looks complete as of this past week

Triangle pattern that began last September has been resolved with this week’s move back over $528

Consolidation over last five months has helped to relieve overbought conditions and makes this attractive following its breakout back to new highs

Upside targeted resistance lies at 595-600, then $669

Upstart Holdings (UPST – $82.42) – Convincing push off the lows has helped momentum start to surge

Breakout back to test last Fall’s highs on heavy volume is attractive toward expecting a continued lift to targets over $100 following this past week’s consolidation

UPST’s rally to multi-year highs late last year was initially encouraging and now the stock is beginning a renewed effort which began early this past week

Minor “backing and filling” this week creates an attractive risk/reward scenario following the high volume breakout to multi-year highs.

Rally up to $105 is thought possible initially and then a larger push up to $161 looks possible on an intermediate-term basis

Accenture (ACN – $388.00) – Base breakout makes ACN very attractive technically for a coming push back to new all-time highs

Breakout to the highest weekly close since early 2022 makes this attractive for a coming challenge and move over all-time highs near $417.

ACN breakout above the three-year triangle pattern bodes well for additional gains back to new all-time highs

Structurally the act of having exceeded both March and October 2024 highs has successfully exceeded a three-year Cup and Handle pattern formed in early 2022

Initial resistance zone lies at $417-$422 and over would lead up to $477 and then $511.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI – $47.91) – Rally back over $60 expected after a confirmed bottoming in SMCI last November

Super Micro Computer has officially completed a five-wave decline last November following a vicious eight-month decline which resulted in an 80% decline

The initial bounce off those lows into year-end has been consolidated, and SMCI should be starting a new rise which exceeds December highs en-route to a push up above $60

Momentum has been slowly but surely turning back to positive on weekly charts as SMCI could be set to make the highest weekly close since last Fall 2024

An upcoming test and move over $48 looks to be underway, and initial targets over $48 lie near $58.

Additional resistance targets are found at $70 which approximate the 50% retracement level of SMCI’s 2024 decline.

Alibaba (BABA – $124.73) – Impressive base breakout makes BABA technically attractive for an intermediate-term advance

BABA looks technically attractive again following its first weekly breakout back to new multi-year highs

Its weekly pattern has successfully broken out of a reverse Head and Shoulders pattern that started back in 2022

Intermediate-term gains are likely up to 157 followed by $186 as BABA begins an advance after nearly two years of decline was followed by a two-year range-bound pattern.

Decline in the US Dollar should help China Equities bounce further in the months ahead, despite being near-term overbought.

Minor consolidation that follows this recent breakout likely should provide even more actionable opportunity and strong support should materialize between $103-$108 before BABA begins an intermediate-term rally.

Deere & Co. (DE- $480.22) – Multi-year breakout bodes well for additional intermediate-term gains

3.5 year base from May 2021 was finally resolved higher last November, 2024 in a multi-year breakout

Consolidation into early January 2025 helped to relieve overbought conditions before DE began to turn back higher.

Resistance lies initially near $580, then a rally to $690-$700 is possible

Additional Comments

Tesla (TSLA-$355.84) – Intermediate-term attractive, but TSLA has some near-term work to do, technically

TSLA near-term downtrend doesn’t take away from its intermediate-term appeal; However, near-term TSLA requires some stabilization after recent short-term pullback

Break of $373 caused weekly momentum to roll over to negative (Per MACD) and a move to $314 still can’t be ruled out.

Short-term cycles show TSLA to likely bottom in February but to face potential additional weakness in May before larger low is in place

TSLA is expected to eventually push back to new all-time highs in 2025; However, the next three months could still prove to be choppy given the negative crossover in MACD

Rallies back above $373 would serve to help momentum and structure improve, and should help to add conviction on TSLA’s bounce

Deckers Outdoor (DECK- $155.07) – Steep slide nearing short-term support

DECK’s recent steep slide has neared support where this is expected to stabilize at Ichimoku cloud support

The area near current levels represents a 50% retracement of DECK’s entire rally from 2023 lows into early 2025

While the intermediate-term momentum and structure has deteriorated, it’s likely that DECK stabilizes and begins a sharp bounce in the months ahead

The inability of DECK to recover 190 would be problematic in 2H 2025 and might cause DECK to be less timely

DECK is being held in UPTICKS at this time with support at $150, then $134. New Resistance targets are 169 initially then $185-$190 which is a zone of resistance on a larger rally.

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