US Equity trends remain choppy, but arguably have not broken down in a way that should give way to much more technical weakness. Both SPX and QQQ look to be stabilizing near key support, which could lead to a bounce this week if NVDA’s conference call helps to sustain the momentum which has lifted its stock in after-hours trading post earnings on Wednesday. While many investors have started to turn more bearish, the technical trends cannot be considered bearish with prices above October lows in both SPX and QQQ. Furthermore, Equal-weighted SPX has also not broken down. While market breadth and momentum have been under pressure for the last few months, the combination of cycles bottoming, DeMark exhaustion starting to form, along with Elliott-wave patterns nearing completion, is a reason to buy dips into late November. Overall, I am expecting a bounce vs. a breakdown in the days ahead. However, it remains paramount for a broad-based rally to start to get underway as December nears. Failure to mount a strong rally in December that helps to lift market breadth into year-end would likely prove to be a 1st Half 2026 problem. For now, I like positioning long and feel that NVDA’s results likely help the market recover.
No real change in commentary ahead of NVDA 3.04% earnings, which look to have satisfied concerns given strong revenues, strong earnings and a very good forecast. While Wednesday’s rally failed to generate sufficient technical momentum to break the ongoing downtrend, I suspect this will likely happen on Thursday as NVDA 3.04% ’s earnings could help to spur on a Technology rally.
(Note, my Intra-day Flash Insight post from yesterday had some erroneous price data, which looked to be a faulty price feed from Symbolik.)
As seen below, QQQ 0.89% has resistance at 606, which lines up with early morning intra-day peaks from Wednesday and also aligns with the ongoing downtrend from last Wednesday, 11/12/25. I believe this likely should be exceeded on Thursday, which should help to carry QQQ 0.89% back up to 615 initially, then $620.
Movement above 620 should allow for a challenge and push back to minor new high territory.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series
I noted a few positives in my Technical note yesterday and have pasted these below to reiterate some of the bullish things that are happening now technically, despite some of the recent breadth deterioration.
- Technology does not seem to be broken, despite recent weakness. Trends in stocks like AAPL 1.03% , GOOGL 4.04% remain in good shape, and even NVDA 3.04% , despite its recent weakness, has not really broken down.
- Broader ^SPX and QQQ 0.89% trends can’t really be called bearish with prices above October lows.
- DeMark-based exhaustion is starting to form on ETFs like QQQ 0.89% (240-minute chart). This would also be triggered in SPY 0.35% also on an early Wednesday move under 655.86, and SPY has now retreated down to its disqualified TDST line(Also based on DeMark theory)
- Cycles in ^SPX seem to show a low in place by the first week in December(lasting through mid-January). If NVDA 3.04% were to positively surprise with earnings on Wednesday, this might “kick into gear” early.
- Sentiment has gotten downright bearish again, with polls like AAII and Fear and Greed having registered high levels of bearish sentiment.
- Elliott patterns still look “corrective” (Overlapping wave structure, which is normally not conducive to thinking there has been a meaningful peak). This began in late October, so it looks quite different from the former selloffs, which started in early 2022 or early 2025.
NVDA likely can reverse its recent trend of falling post earnings, given Wednesday’s earnings and revenue beat
Bloomberg had an interesting table last week showing that since NVDA 3.04% ’s 2Q 2024 earnings report, released 8/28/24, the stock has normally sold off after earnings. (Table not shown below) This might seem unusual given that NVDA 3.04% is up 50% since then and has added 1.5 trillion in market cap. However, in each of these past five earnings releases, the stock had been higher in the prior month leading up to earnings, not lower. I sense that this time around could be different, given that the stock has pulled back into support and has fallen over 10% into its earnings from the mid-October peak.
NVDA 3.04% earnings since 8/2024 are shown below, marked with arrows near prior releases. As seen here, despite the stock selling off post earnings over the past year in the wake of its big run-up, this time could be different, given that NVDA 3.04% has sold off since October from $212 down to under $187.
While I don’t like to make forecasts on after-hours activity, the initial results on NVDA 3.04% ’s earnings seem to be pleasing to investors as the stock traded higher by 5% in after-hours trading on Wednesday. As of 5 pm on Wednesday, this traded at $195, vs. an 11/19/25 close of $186.52. Any ability to hold these gains into Thursday’s trading after the conference call on Wednesday with Jensen Huang likely should help Technology start to rebound after a difficult start to November.
My short-term target for NVDA 3.04% Lies near 199, and above that should enable this stock to possibly reach its former all-time highs near $212.19. The lack of a push back to new highs by the end of the year would be a possible issue for NVDA 3.04% into 2026. However, at present, today’s earnings news exceeded expectations, and the stock has traded higher after-hours.
NVIDIA Corporation
US Dollar should push back to new monthly highs before reversing in December back lower
The US Dollar’s gains this week have been technically significant and positive, and likely lead DXY (US Dollar index) up to near 101 into late November/early December.
While the decline in the Japanese Yen has been persistent in recent weeks despite the difficulty of US stocks in pushing higher, I don’t suspect that USDJPY has much further room to rise on the upside technically. (However, in the very short run, this very well could reach 160-161 before stalling out and reversing course.)
Risk assets have largely proven shaky in recent months during the time that both US Treasury yields and the US Dollar have pushed higher from this past Summer. In the short run, the advance in both DXY as well as the US Treasury Note Index (^TNX) looks to continue.
However, my cycle composites do come together with some Elliott-wave counts to suggest that December might provide a selloff in both between early December and mid-January 2026.
This could be a time when Emerging markets and commodities begin to build on their strength from this past Summer, and China, India, Mexico, South Korea, and Brazil might push higher into 2026.
For now, I believe that the US Dollar surge this week has been far more significant technically than anything regarding the US Equity markets over the past few days and is worth keeping a close eye on.
U.S. Dollar Index
Consumer Discretionary’s weakness vs. Consumer Staples should prove short-lived before a rally back to highs
Interestingly enough, and not surprisingly, the recent period of “risk-off” trading for US Stocks resulted in Consumer Staples actually showing better strength than Consumer Discretionary.
This ratio is normally considered a classic risk-on/Risk-off type ratio to watch carefully as stocks start to wobble. (When stock indices normally advance, the ratio of Discretionary vs. Staples tends to rise, and vice versa.)
In this case, there was a material breakdown in the ratio of Equal-weighted Consumer Discretionary vs. Equal-weighted Consumer Staples (RCD -0.26% vs RHS -0.81% ), which turned lower in late September, roughly a full month ahead of the SPX peaking out in late October.
As this shows below, the break of former November lows was bearish for “Discretionary” this past week. However, I suspect that the downside here should prove limited.
Some stabilization is likely in my view by early December that should lead Discretionary back higher vs. Staples into mid-January.
This will be something to watch carefully if Discretionary cannot show meaningful relative strength vs. Staples in the months ahead.
Several prominent Discretionary names have been very hard hit in recent months, such as HD -0.51% , CMG 1.06% , GRMN 0.12% , NCLH 0.11% ,among others. This will need to stabilize and start to turn higher to have faith in the consumer for 2026.
For now, I feel like this ratio remains important to monitor as it has historically had excellent leading tendencies vs. the US Stock indices near major turns.
RSPD/RSPS
