Near-term trends are bullish for SPX, but the rally is nearing resistance while big-cap earnings out of Technology get underway in earnest starting tomorrow. I continue to believe that SPX likely won’t immediately eclipse 6950, and Tuesday’s price action proved to be a possible “tell” of what might materialize between now and next week as the price action grows increasingly choppier. While trends remain certainly quite positive, I feel like VIX at 16 is quite attractive on a one-month basis, given quite a few “unknowns” might not properly reflect the risk of not only the upcoming earnings being disappointing, but any change in Central bank policy and/or a less than concrete outcome in the coming meeting between Trump/Xi. A few of the short-term cycles seem to come together with DeMark indicators to suggest next week could be important heading into November. However, as always, the proof will be in US Equity markets, demonstrating that a possible consolidation is likely next month. At present, Semiconductor Index (SOX) still looks to push higher into next week, and it remains difficult to fight the near-term momentum in Technology.
U.S. equity markets performed as might have been expected, given ^SPX and QQQ -0.78% having pushed higher into near-term channel resistance. ^SPX finished fractionally positive today, but all 11 major sectors were lower. However, despite Technology as a sector having finished down on the day, stocks like SWKS -5.09% INTC -2.28% , NVDA -1.74% , PYPL -1.42% , CRWD -1.40% , and AVGO 0.56% all finishing higher than 3% on the session helped XLK -1.43% finish positive again in trading.
This kind of divergence (where Tech rises, but the broader market doesn’t) has been ongoing since July, but grew decidedly more pronounced as of this past week. It’s not a technical positive when nearly five (of 11) sectors finish with losses of 1% or greater in trading (Utilities, Energy, Discretionary, REITS, and Staples), and market breadth finished around 3/2 negative.
As discussed yesterday, I generally feel it’s right to stay bullish and positive until trends are broken (as my channel resistance could very well prove innocuous and allow for an overthrow into November). However, it will eventually be important to see Financials participate as both this sector, along with Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary, have been negative over the last month. Moreover, there’s been some slight outperformance in defensive sectors like Healthcare and Utilities, while Consumer Staples has outperformed Consumer Discretionary in the past month.
Overall, regardless of whether the trend reverses just yet or not (and most of my time-based analysis suggests that next week should be more important than this week), I’m expecting that recent breadth deterioration likely will continue. Thus, the inability of the broader market to follow suit to match Technology’s strength likely won’t play catch-up right away.
Following some consolidation in November, I expect that a broader-based rally is possible in late November and throughout December. At present, the risk/reward to me, technically based on a combination of cycles, DeMark tools, Elliott-wave, and traditional trendline-based resistance for many stocks, looks sub-par for the next few weeks.
S&P 500 Index
Uranium shares surge on US Nuclear reactor pact; CCJ adds nearly $9 billion in market capitalization on Tuesday
Cameco’s 23% gains on Tuesday represented a near $9 billion gain in market capitalization for CCJ -2.04% on Tuesday.
The stock is now higher by more than 100% Year-to-Date as the government deal will see Westinghouse Electric build large-scale reactors to accelerate nuclear power.
Cameco owns 49% of Westinghouse, and both technical and fundamentals seem to agree that this deal was good for CCJ -2.04% .
Shares began to accelerate in 2025, this past June, following CCJ -2.04% ’s breakout back to new all-time high territory following some churning near this level, which lasted around 16 months, starting in early 2024.
This year’s decisive breakout has helped CCJ -2.04% to rise sharply and could help it reach $120 by January 2026 before much consolidation gets underway.
This logarithmic chart shows the breakout of former highs of a pattern that came to represent a bullish Cup and Handle pattern since 2007.
Overall, CCJ -2.04% will remain on my technical Upticks list, and I will raise initial resistance to $120 after today’s move.
CCJ US
Microsoft looks to be reaccelerating back to all-time highs, but surpassing $555 will be key, technically speaking
MSFT -0.43% stalled out this morning right near prior highs on this open gap on the OpenAI contract after a successful effort to push back higher to challenge former all-time highs.
Overall, there has been a continued rotation from within the “Magnificent 7” (Mag 7) in recent months as opposed to any real breakdown in these stocks.
Despite last month’s slowdown, former early-year laggards like GOOGL 3.20% and TSLA 1.21% have become leaders, while NFLX -1.00% and AMZN -0.68% have shown temporary stalling.
Moreover, MSFT doesn’t look much different from NVDA -1.74% in showing no net progress since August, but also no true damage & now both have begun to run back to highs.
This week’s earnings could be important, but for now, nothing too worrying about some rotation taking place. Filling today’s gap at $534 would be an attractive risk/reward area to consider buying dips, while the ability to clear $555 on a daily close should help MSFT -0.43% to eventually move to $575.
At present, this stalling might last longer than 1-2 days, but MSFT -0.43% earnings tomorrow post close will be important to watch towards seeing if this consolidation can be exceeded. At present, I don’t have any real conviction on the near-term pattern, but overall, my view on MSFT -0.43% remains bullish on an intermediate-term basis, and I expect an eventual breakout of $555, which might lead to $575.
Microsoft
Alphabet bullish but stretched; Shares could benefit from consolidation following its sharp rally before earnings
GOOGL 3.20% has begun to show signs of counter-trend exhaustion on a few timeframes heading into earnings, making it possible that the stock might require consolidation before it can achieve more on the upside into November.
Following a push higher to over $267, the shares are certainly bullish from a trend perspective. However, they’ve gotten overbought and are trading a bit too far above the former September peaks at $256 to view them favorably into earnings.
Ideally, GOOGL 3.20% might consolidate into November and pull back down to $245. This could serve to alleviate recent overbought conditions and would represent an attractive opportunity following its run-up into Tuesday’s close.
Following some consolidation, my technicals suggest that GOOGL 3.20% should be able to make further upside progress. However, the combination of DeMark’s exhaustion indicators coinciding with near-term overbought conditions into earnings warrants some consolidation before this can look as appealing after its recent run-up.
Alphabet CI A
