SPX, TNX and NVDA in focus Array ( [cookie] => 91a9db-f32f05-2d0a60-0fa032-251daf [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 0 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 178470 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
Note: There will be no video as I am out of the office. Thank you for your understanding.
$SPX's late-day bounce seemed to directly follow Trump's comments on rescinding global chip curbs amid the AI restriction debate. This seemed to coincide with $NVDA lifting to the highest levels since late March, and is seen as a minor positive to Technology. (This came before Arm Holdings' negative announcement ($ARM), which was made without having heard these comments.) Overall, I expect that this recent moderation of stock index prices turns back higher by the end of the week, and initially, rising above $SPX-5655 would be an important jump-starting a move up above 5700, and this looks possible into early next week. $NVDA targets look to materialize between $120-$122. The bottom line is that today's FOMC meeting did not seem to be very negative, and both Stocks and Treasuries look likely to push higher in the days ahead (Yields falling).
S&P 500 Index
Treasury yields have begun to drop on the long end heading into today's FOMC meeting, and the 10's-2's yield curve has fallen to 48 bps. Yesterday's 10-Year auction was quite good, with Foreign and International entities awarded 18.4% of the $39 billion 10-year Note auction and 10.6% of the $22 billion 30-year auction. Thus, the demand for long-end auctions goes directly against the narrative that a lack of foreign demand was the driver of the early April bounce in Yields, and was more stoked by deleveraging concerns. Overall, the better-than-expected demand for Treasuries has kicked off a rally in Treasuries, with $TNX having undercut lows since Monday, dropping under 4.289%. I expect this leads to continued pullback in Yields as Powell reinforced the "wait and see" message, and 10-yr yields should drop to 4.17% and then a violation of 4.12% from 5/1 would be quite important technically, allowing for a test and probable technical break of April's yield lows at 3.86%.


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