Pre-Election Year seasonality suggests buying into late January weakness might make sense Array ( [cookie] => 596a25-805399-724db3-06fc84-1cfaa6 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 0 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => [visitor_id] => 208285 [user_id] => [reason] => [method] => ) 1 and can accesss
*There will be no video today (1/5/2023) or tomorrow (1/6/2023). Videos will resume Monday (1/9/2023).
The near-term trends look to be giving way, as per $QQQ’s breakdown to new multi-day lows as of Thursday’s close. While SPX has not officially broken 3800, it won’t take much for SPX to also join suit, and could usher in a tough couple weeks of losses before markets bottom out coinciding with the 80-day trading day cycle in late January. As discussed yesterday, it’s tough having too much bullish conviction with big market percentage constituents like $AAPL and $MSFT hitting new weekly lows. While Discretionary and Communication Services have held up quite well in recent weeks, a break of SPX 3794 should lead down to 3700 and slightly below into late January. $DXY and $TNX have both shown some evidence of turning back higher, and the combination of these moving up is thought to be a negative given current correlation trends. Any break of December lows 259 in QQQ likely brings about a retest of October lows near 254.
Gann’s Mass Pressure Index shows a much better year
Not everything looks negative when looking at the year as a whole! While it’s early to have any real conviction on whether the traditional decennial year tendencies will materialize similar to last year’s decline, this year is likely to be far more positive, if historical cycles are any guide.


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