Pre-Election Year seasonality suggests buying into late January weakness might make sense

*There will be no video today (1/5/2023) or tomorrow (1/6/2023). Videos will resume Monday (1/9/2023).

The near-term trends look to be giving way, as per $QQQ’s breakdown to new multi-day lows as of Thursday’s close.  While SPX has not officially broken 3800, it won’t take much for SPX to also join suit, and could usher in a tough couple weeks of losses before markets bottom out coinciding with the 80-day trading day cycle in late January.  As discussed yesterday, it’s tough having too much bullish conviction with big market percentage constituents like $AAPL and $MSFT hitting new weekly lows.  While Discretionary and Communication Services have held up quite well in recent weeks, a break of SPX 3794 should lead down to 3700 and slightly below into late January.  $DXY and $TNX have both shown some evidence of turning back higher, and the combination of these moving up is thought to be a negative given current correlation trends. Any break of December lows 259 in QQQ likely brings about a retest of October lows near 254.

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Gann’s Mass Pressure Index shows a much better year

Not everything looks negative when looking at the year as a whole!   While it’s early to have any real conviction on whether the traditional decennial y...
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