“Life would be tragic if it weren’t funny.” – Stephen Hawking
Chart of the Day
Good morning!
Tech stocks are notching an intense sell-off this week, with the Magnificent Seven on pace to decline 1.3%. The longest shutdown in history finally ended, but it’s not entirely clear if we’re getting all the economic data that we missed. Nvidia earnings are on tap next week.
The TLDR: Way too much happened this week. That’s why I’d like to quickly resurface all the atypical things that happened this week and grabbed my attention.
#1 President Trump floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage.
It’s obvious that’s a bad idea (unless you’re a mortgage investor, maybe), but let’s go deeper into why. First of all, from a global perspective, it’s highly unusual to have even a 30-year mortgage. The average length of a mortgage in France, for example, is 23 years
Then, consider that the median age of a homebuyer in the U.S. is 59 years in 2025, compared to 39 in 2010. So if you take out a 50-year mortgage at 59, you’ll be 109 when you pay it off. I hear that 109 is the new 89, so fair’s fair.
Even if you try to accelerate your interest payments, you’ll still be getting the short end of the stick. Let’s assume a long-term average mortgage rate of 7.7%. With a 50-year mortgage, your monthly payment would be 8% less than with a 30-year mortgage, but when that house is finally yours free and clear, your total interest paid would be 87% more, according to analysis done by our very own macro data scientist Alex Wang.
#2 If you waited 25 years, you’d now break even on your Cisco holdings. Good on you for holding on.
For my generation, Cisco is known for its epic flop during the height of the dot-com bubble. But perhaps for the next generation, they’ll know Cisco for its epic recovery.
Its shares finished Thursday 3.5% away from all-time highs that were hit back on March 27, 2000. It’s truly a miracle that it has somehow survived and is now looking to thrive. It recently reported better-than expected earnings and revenue and provided strong guidance for the upcoming quarter and fiscal year.
What’s powering the fresh rise? Well…you’re not going to like this one. It’s another hot theme like last time: AI. Cisco’s always made networking equipment, but it’s signing a lot of contracts with hyperscalers and working on new equipment, which investors like.
Let’s pray this time the records don’t make way for losses as fast as they did last time.
#3 Robinhood’s testing the lengths younger people will go to for cashback.
Robinhood, which is known for betting on the latest and hottest trend, is now betting on an old-timey tradition of cashback. For our younger audience, let me explain. Sometimes when you go to Walmart and pay with a debit card, the machine will ask you if you’d like $20 in cash. The money comes out of your own account but saves you a trip to the ATM.
From a Wall Street Journal exclusive: “The brokerage is joining with food-and-drink delivery app Gopuff to allow customers to withdraw cash from their Robinhood bank accounts and have it brought right to their door. For a $6.99 delivery fee—or $2.99 if they have more than $100,000 in assets across their Robinhood accounts—users can skip the ATM and have money delivered in a sealed paper bag while they are at home.”
This new option to me seems like Robinhood is trying to grow out of its playful brokerage app reputation and instead come across as a more mature company.
The expansion is surprising considering that a big chunk of Robinhood’s customer base skews toward younger consumers. And many members of the younger generation don’t have traditional bank accounts, relying instead on payment apps like Venmo and CashApp.
I suppose though, why not? You’re already paying so much in fees and tips with food delivery apps, what’s another $6.99?
Share your thoughts
Are there any other crazy stories in the market this week that I missed? Click here to send us your response.
📧✍️Here’s what a reader commented📧✍️
Q: Do you prefer AMD here or Nvidia?
A: I greatly prefer NVDA which continues to drive an 80% plus market share of AI infrastructure chips with the top performing stack & market leading software for such. It’s more than just the chip driving demand for NVDA’s products & solutions & they have the best chip design team in the world & are poised to continue to be a leader in all future technologies too to include AI, AR, self driving vehicles, robotics, crypto mining, gaming.
Catch up with FS Insight
Fed officials are still pushing back against a Dec cut, which is making markets more wary. And markets have a new “wall of worry” as the Supreme Court expresses skepticism about the White House tariffs. All in all, the turbulence is tracking the expected chop in the first half of Nov.
Technical
However, if November lows are violated, this would represent an unexpected, but bearish development that I cannot rule out at this time. For those concerned with risk management, the areas of SPX 6631 and QQQ-598.68 are paramount to hold.
Crypto
I walk through the key points from yesterday’s strategy note, including the near-term crypto market setup, the factors behind my shift toward a more risk-averse stance, and the indicators I am watching that could turn the outlook in a more positive direction.
News We’re Following
Breaking News
- Walmart CEO Doug McMillon to Step Down WSJ
Markets and economy
- When AI Hype Meets AI Reality: A Reckoning in 6 Charts WSJ
- Bitcoin falls below $95,000 as four-day rout picks up steam CNBC
- How Apollo, Soros and others spotted red flags at First Brands FT
- Massachusetts Offered a Solution to Housing Shortages. Is It Working? NYT
- Who Pays When A.I. Is Wrong? NYT
- China’s secretive gold purchases help fuel record rally FT
- Has AI gotten too big to fail? How the U.S. government is backstopping the tech boom. MW
Business
- StubHub stock tanks 20% as CEO says it is not giving guidance for current quarter CNBC
- D.R. Horton is tapping a startup’s AI zoning tool to build more homes CNBC
- How 30-year-old eBay is making a comeback thanks to AI CNN
Politics
- America First? Some Trump Supporters Worry That’s No Longer the Case NYT
- The Shutdown Is Over. For Many SNAP Recipients, the Scars Remain. NYT
- Donald Trump fights for control of Maga movement as Jeffrey Epstein emails widen schism FT
Overseas
- Ukrainian attack halts oil exports from Russia’s Novo, affecting 2% of global supply, sources say RT
- Canada to reroute lumber exports as Trump’s tariffs bite FT
- China Registers Worst Investment Decline in Years as Slowdown Continues WSJ
- A Dead Glacier Is a Loss. A Dying One Is a Threat. NYT
Of Interest
- Why Every Company Suddenly Wants to Become a Bank WSJ
- Companies Predict 2026 Will Be the Worst College Grad Job Market in Five Years WSJ
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| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/14 | 8:30 AM | Oct Sep PPI m/m | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| 11/14 | 8:30 AM | Oct Sep Core PPI m/m | 0.2 | -0.1 |
| 11/18 | 8:30 AM | Oct Sep Import Price m/m | n/a | 0.3 |
| 11/18 | 10:00 AM | Nov Oct Homebuilder Sentiment | n/a | 37 |
| 11/18 | 4:00 PM | Sep Aug Net TIC Flows | n/a | 2.078 |
| 11/19 | 2:00 PM | Oct 29 Sep 17 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0 |
| 11/20 | 10:00 AM | Oct Sep Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.06 |
| 11/20 | 10:00 AM | Oct Sep Existing Home Sales m/m | 0.69 | 1.5 |
