A daily market update from FS Insight — what you need to know ahead of opening bell.
“I’d rather regret the risk that didn’t work out than the chances I didn’t take at all”. — Simone Biles
Over the weekend
Hopes for a ‘Santa Claus Rally’ Fade on Wall Street WSJ
Get your house in order, Europe — or face ‘ongoing decline,’ economists warn CNBC
Why the Dow had such a miserable December versus other indexes MW
Shipowners switch to smaller vessels as world trade reroutes from China FT
Air travel is breaking records, but a lack of planes could result in headwinds in 2025 FRT
Euro and British pound tumble against U.S. dollar as markets brace for Trump return CNBC
The battered bond market starts 2025 facing some difficult issues about debt CNBC
U.S. Companies Vouched for China During Trump’s First Term. Not Anymore. WSJ
How Five Pros Are Inflation-Proofing Their Investments WSJ
After Two Stellar Years for Stocks, It’s Time to Play Defense BR
Donald Trump’s ‘Maganomics’ will damage growth, economists tell FT polls FT
Gold set to rally further this year, say Wall Street banks FT
Are Russian Sanctions Working? Debate Takes New Urgency With Trump. NYT
Chart of the Day
| Overnight |
| S&P Futures +44
point(s) (+0.7%
) overnight range: -25 to +60 point(s) |
| APAC |
| Nikkei -0.96%
Topix -0.60% China SHCOMP -2.66% Hang Seng -2.18% Korea -0.02% Singapore +0.35% Australia +0.52% India +1.88% Taiwan -0.88% |
| Europe |
| Stoxx 50 -0.45%
Stoxx 600 -0.02% FTSE 100 +0.47% DAX -0.03% CAC 40 -0.65% Italy -0.39% IBEX -0.45% |
| FX |
| Dollar Index (DXY) +0.25%
to 108.75 EUR/USD -0.38% to 1.0317 GBP/USD -0.81% to 1.2416 USD/JPY +0.11% to 157.07 USD/CNY -0.00% to 7.2994 USD/CNH +0.00% to 7.3358 USD/CHF -0.19% to 0.9081 USD/CAD -0.25% to 1.4424 AUD/USD +0.34% to 0.6208 |
| UST Term Structure |
| 2Y-3
M Spread narrowed -3.3bps
to -11.9bps
10Y-2 Y Spread narrowed -1.9bps to 30.6bps 30Y-10 Y Spread widened 0.8bps to 21.4bps |
| Yesterday's Recap |
| SPX -0.43%
SPX Eq Wt +0.18% NASDAQ 100 -0.87% NASDAQ Comp -0.90% Russell Midcap -0.09% R2k +0.11% R1k Value +0.18% R1k Growth -0.92% R2k Value +0.27% R2k Growth -0.05% FANG+ -1.21% Semis -1.02% Software -0.81% Biotech +0.19% Regional Banks -0.12% SPX GICS1 Sorted: Tech -1.04% Cons Disc -0.98% Comm Srvcs -0.73% SPX -0.43% Indu -0.14% Utes -0.12% Fin +0.07% Cons Staples +0.13% Healthcare +0.24% Materials +0.36% REITs +0.76% Energy +1.35% |
| USD HY OaS |
| All Sectors -0.0bps
to 328bps All Sectors ex-Energy -0.2bps 306bps Cons Disc +0.2bps 285bps Indu +0.6bps 248bps Tech +0.5bps 317bps Comm Srvcs +0.1bps 514bps Materials -0.6bps 302bps Energy +0.1bps 314bps Fin Snr -0.4bps 287bps Fin Sub -1.6bps 195bps Cons Staples +0.2bps 284bps Healthcare -0.6bps 386bps Utes -0.1bps 235bps * |
| Date | Time | Description | Estimate | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/2 | 9:45 AM | Dec F S&P Manu PMI | 48.3 | 48.3 |
| 1/3 | 10:00 AM | Dec ISM Manu PMI | 48.2 | 48.4 |
| 1/6 | 9:45 AM | Dec F S&P Srvcs PMI | n/a | 58.5 |
| 1/6 | 10:00 AM | Nov F Durable Gds Orders | -0.3 | -1.1 |
| 1/7 | 8:30 AM | Nov Trade Balance | -78.45 | -73.836 |
| 1/7 | 10:00 AM | Dec ISM Srvcs PMI | 53 | 52.1 |
| 1/7 | 10:00 AM | Nov JOLTS | 7700 | 7744 |
| 1/8 | 2:00 PM | Dec 18 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0 |
| 1/8 | 2:00 PM | Dec 18 FOMC Minutes | n/a | 0 |
MORNING INSIGHT
Good morning!
The fundamental picture remains strong for 2025 and tailwinds are arguably stronger in the new year than 2024. The new incoming administration is a positive. The Fed is dovish. ISM is bottoming and should turn up.
Click HERE for more.
TECHNICAL
Fundstrat Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton is on vacation this week. He is scheduled to resume publishing Monday, Jan. 6, 2025.
CRYPTO
It’s important to note that net flows alone provide an incomplete picture of profit-taking, as inflows may remain strong even amidst broader selloffs by recipients of the HYPE airdrop. Thus, we should look to pure outflows to gain better insight.
Click HERE for more.
First News
Few people dominated headlines like WNBA Rookie of the Year Caitlin Clark did last year. But her effect is bigger than you may realize. Thanks to huge sums of advertising money and a surge in fans’ enthusiasm, women’s sports look solidly on the way to becoming more profitable.
The timing couldn’t be better.
Fans swarmed to women’s sports this year, raptured by the excellence of athletes like star WNBA rookie Angel Reese, record-breaking swimmer Katie Ledecky, tennis star Coco Gauff, rugby 7s Olympic bronze medalist (and Dancing with the Stars season 33 finalist) Ilona Maher, and of course, gymnastics GOAT Simone Biles.
The biggest beneficiary has perhaps been the WNBA, which was recently crowned the fastest growing brand in 2024 among adults in the U.S. and delivered a record $136 million in media value for sponsors. The fifth and final game of the 2024 WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx averaged 2.15 million viewers, the largest number in a quarter-century.
The league is set to grow even more. At least three more teams are coming within the next two years, with the Golden State Valkyries beginning play in the 2025 season.
Media executives appear optimistic about ad revenue in the upcoming year, largely driven by companies with sports rights and live events, according to a CNBC story focusing on industry executives’ forecasts for 2025.
The story quoted Natalie Bastian, global chief marketing officer at media company Teads, saying that, “What we’ve heard in general from some of our closest partners … media budgets aren’t growing, and so there’s just more selection into where [advertisers are] spending their money.”
That means that ad dollars are making their way out of some areas and funneling into others.
Streaming companies are rushing to get in. For example, Netflix is now the exclusive home of WWE Raw, which also features women’s fights. It also secured U.S. rights to the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031. This comes after Netflix first stepped into sports broadcasting in 2024, livestreaming the Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight in November and two NFL games on Christmas.
Women’s sports clearly captured America’s attention in 2024. The question now becomes: Can they keep it?
