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Our View: FOMC Still Dovish, Base Case Unchanged Array ( [cookie] => 7584e7-ae0e4f-6a2286-e059cf-305f08 [current_usage] => 2 [max_usage] => 2 [current_usage_crypto] => 2 [max_usage_crypto] => 2 [lock] => 1 [message] => [error] => [active_member] => 1 [subscriber] => 0 [role] => fsi_macro [visitor_id] => 591083 [reason] => [method] => ) 1
After a series of data releases in late 2023 that showed inflation retreating, investors greeted 2024 constructively, apparently anticipating that the Federal Reserve was on the verge of cutting rates aggressively. In early January, Fed funds futures trading implied that the market was expecting as many as seven rate cuts in 2024. Of course, that was before two CPI readings came in hotter than expected, softening the ebullience that had characterized the markets
Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee saw both CPI prints as aberrations, citing seasonality and potential methodology-related reasons for their deviation from trend. Lee reminded clients that inflation was continuing to tank, while also arguing that Fed economists would not use one – or two – months of unexpected inflation readings to change the course that the central bank had already signaled in previous meetings.
Fed officials strove to communicate a similar message. For example, during a speech in the Council on Foreign Relations after January CPI was released, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that despite the hotter-than-expected numbers, “It's totally clear that inflation is coming down,” telling his audience not to get “amped up when you get one month of CPI that was higher than...
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MacroFSI Macrofrom$199/mobilled anuallyFirst Month Free!What's included?Real-time market commentary about macro and crypto events from our research heads.Webinars and MediaDaily video commentary on market conditions & key events.We host over 12 LIVE webinars per year with our research team and high-profile special guests. Incredible value and market insights!ResearchOn market eventsThese are released periodically after crucial market developments.WeeklyWeekly update on developments in Washington DC and how they may impact Wall Street.Updated bi-weeklyHighlights timely market themes and sectors with corresponding stocks, cutting through the day-to-day market “noise” for a distinct perspective.Stock ListsUpdated monthlyTechnically derived, intermediate-term picks of attractive risk/reward opportunities from the S&P 500.And More!Our main goal is to make you a better investor! This series will guide you through key financial concepts and topics in an understandable way.We gather your inquiries and answer them in the most scalable way. Hear directly from our research principals!Get questions answered directly by our research heads and guest speakers.Get access to all the macro research on FS Insight
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